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5th Generation ID Abuse: An RNG Guide

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blog-IDRNG1.pngRNGing your ID? Why would you ever need that? Well, have you ever wondered about how your opponents at VGC competitions have so many shinies? Generally, it's because they've RNGed their ID to make finding shiny Pokemon so much easier than grueling hunts through shining patches of grass or soft resets in front of legendaries. In the 5th generation, however, finding shinies has become much easier, so ID abuse is largely reserved for the roamers, Thundurus and Tornadus. This guide will explain both how to RNG for your ID and then how to capture your shiny Thundurus:


RNGing your ID:

Step One: Finding your IV seed

(If you are only abusing your ID for a specific ID/SID combo and not for a specific PID or frame to be shiny, then skip ahead to step 3)


Start the process by going into RNG reporter and opening the time finder. Choose the encounter type of whatever you want to abuse, then set the IVs to whatever you're looking for. (If you're looking for a seed for a Thundurus that you would like to abuse for, like we will be doing in the example at the end, select the method in Time Finder as "Standard Seed" and encounter type as "Roamer".)

Set the Month and Year that you want to search, and set min and max frames to 1 to make the abuse that much easier for you (if you wanna abuse your starter, a frame of 1 is the only way to do it).

Then once all of that is filled out, you're ready to press "Generate" and start the search.

Step Two: Finding your frame/PID

When you have found a seed that matches your desired IVs, copy the seed into the main window and set the method to "Gen 5 PIDRNG" (1) and copy and paste your seed into the box (2).

Press the button on the far right that says "Calculate initial PID frame" (3) and generate your results (4).

In the results below, look for a frame with the right Nature, Gender, encounter slot, Ability, etc. (When we RNG your ID for Thundurus, you'll need to make sure that the frame you're looking to abuse is able to be hit. Read at the bottom of the guide to find your frame to abuse for Thundurus!)

Step Three: Finding your ID seed

After all of that, go back to the main window and go to the tab on the top that says "5th Gen Tools". Click that box, then click the option that says "TID/SID Manipulation ("Pandora's Box")".

A new box will pop up. Make sure that your parameters are correctly inputted into the top of the half of the box. If you have not yet calibrated your DS, follow the steps in our calibration guide.

If you're trying to abuse a specific Seed and PID (like we will for Thundurus!) look in the lower left at the box that says "Search by". Tick the box labelled "Seed" and enter in your desired Seed and frame. If you also desire a special ID to go with your new save file, check the TID box and enter in your desired TID.

Now go to the box at the bottom right and choose the date that you want to search. Set the Min frame to 30 and the Max frame to 40.

With all of that entered, you're ready to search for some ID seeds! Choose any seed that you want, it really doesn't matter much (just try and pick one with a frame of around 30 to keep the number of advancements needed down).

Step Four: Hitting your seed

For the most part, hitting your ID seed is very similar to normal Gen 5 abuse. Make sure the save file is completely deleted from the game, and go to the time settings.

Set your DS to the date and time of your seed and hit your seed like you normally would. When Professor Juniper starts giving her little introduction, just keep pressing A until you get to choose your gender then name. Choose your gender normally, but when the Professor asks if your chosen name is correct make sure to say "Yes". Saying "No" will advance the RNG by 1, and we don't want that right now.

Now continue on until you're finally able to move in game and check your trainer card for the ID that you hit. If your ID doesn't match the ID of your Seed, that can mean a couple of different things. To find out, at the bottom of Pandora's Box in the "Seed Finder" box, enter your ID and the time and date of your seed. Set the min and max seconds to +/-5 of your seed and the min and max frame from 20 to 40, then press "Find Seed Hit".

If your Pandora's Box gives you a Seed different from the one you were attempting to hit, you've done everything right but haven't hit your Timer0, which is tragically out of your control, and will have to repeat the process.

If your Pandora's Box gives you the correct Seed but a different frame, then you've missed your number of frame advancements. Check the frame of your result and subtract that number from the frame from your initial search. This number will be the number of times you respond "No" to Juniper when she asks for your name.

Congratulations, you've now RNGed for your ID! Let's take a look at a practical example by RNGing for a Shiny Thundurus

ID Abusing for Thundurus

Thundurus is the most relevant Pokemon to learn ID abuse for as ID abuse makes it much easier to RNG shiny than without. Note: Rebattle codes are very useful when RNGing Thundurus, but it is fully possible to RNG without rebattle codes so long as you haven't caught/released Thundurus yet. The use of Pokecheck, however, is a must to confirm the PID of Thundurus.

Finding the PID and Frame of Thundurus

Finding Thundurus' PID will allow you to discover what ID you will need to RNG (above), while finding the correct Frame will give your Thundurus the proper Nature. This requires you to be saved inside of the old lady's house right before you encounter Thundurus and to have already chosen a seed that you want to try.

Once you've done all of this, you will start a series of soft resetting and hitting your seed multiple times with different increments of frame advancements each reset. For example, hit your seed, do not advance the frame, and then release and capture Thundurus. Check Thundurus' Nature. If you don't get the right Nature, reset and hit your seed again but advance the frame once by using only 1 Chatot Chatter this time instead of 0. Release and capture Thundurus and check the Nature. Continue increasing the Chatters by 1 for each reset until you hit the nature that you want. Also make sure to press A as fast as possible when leaving the house until the rain that Thundurus creates goes away.

Once you find the Nature that you want, save the game and upload the Thundurus to Pokecheck if you have an account (if you don't, make one). Look at the Thundurus once uploaded and copy the PID down somewhere. Paste the seed that you used to catch that Thundurus into the main window of RNG reporter and set the method to Gen 5 PIDRNG and encounter type Roaming Pokemon. Set the starting frame to 400 and in the nature box, and select the nature of Thundurus that you got so it only shows relevant results to make it easier to find the frame you hit. Generate results and look for a frame that matches the PID of the Thundurus that you received when hitting your seed and soft resetting. Now you've found the frame you want to abuse for. Go back up to step 3 of the guide to finish your ID abuse of Thundurus!

With your ID abused, you can now simply play through your White version until you get the 8th badge and the gate keeper tells you about the storm on Route 7. Then, you can go back to that house and save inside. Once saved, you can simply hit your seed, do the number of advancements that you did before to get your desired nature, and walk outside, unleashing your Shiny Thundurus.

Thanks to Princess of Johto for the RNG Reporter images.

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      First is my standard ‘Set up Trick Room and hit them hard as I can’ lead pair.

      These two formed a brutally simple Trick Room lead. Lots of teams feared a Fake Out from the Scrafty and either wasted their turn in trying to prevent it, or allowed Scrafty the freedom to attack and put the Choice Band to use. I usually had Rhydon hiding away in the back, ready to jump in and eat flying type attacks for Scrafty or protect Jellicent with Lightningrod. Abomasnow in the back resisted everything that Rhydon feared and stopped Rain from being annoying, too.

      These two formed my hardest hitting pair. Scrafty bulked out Latios with his Intimidate and Latios covered the Fighting types that plagued Scrafty with his Psyshock. With the two Choice items out front, if they weren’t identified quickly enough by the opposition, they could easily be two Pokémon down by turn 2.

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      Finally the only other combination I had imagined before the event. This used Latios’ powerhouse potential to wipe out a Pokémon and give Jellicent a free Will-O-Wisp or Trick Room. Switching Latios on the next turn was a no-brainer anyways due to the -2.
      Everyone + Everyone
      I could list everything as a lead along with everything else and probably justify many reasons why they would work, with the exceptions being Abomasnow and Rhydon. Leading with either of these two usually lead to bad things for me, and for good reason.
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      Abomasnow usually only performed exceptionally well under Trick Room conditions. That said, his Focus Sash allows for a certain amount of pseudo-bulk, and Ice Shard had a nice damage output.


      Well, a kind of threat list. I'm not going to detail everything in the metagame and say how I would have countered it, rather just list Pokémon or strategies that worried me or made me think hard about how to proceed.
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      Set up reliant teams
      Thinking about my team the night before, it occurred to me that not having Taunt could be a big issue. Teams setting up screens, boosting with Calm Minds or even doing something like Guard Splitting Shuckle could have thrown a spanner in my works. I usually had an answer to the Pokémon that implemented these tactics, but a well-designed team played correctly could have troubled me initially. Also coming under this umbrella was the ever possible Perish Trap team. I actually played this in my third match and managed to outplay it to take the first two games decisively and quickly.
      I was going to add in a battle report section, but my notes aren’t coherent for recalling battles, as I only noted people I played and the teams they had.
      My record for swiss was 4/2 –- I had the second hardest schedule according to the first opponent win %s, the hardest being an insane from 69.44% Enosh Shachar (Human), with mine coming second at 66.67%. I played Human again in the top 8 match ups and beat him to play against out eventual champion, Arash Ommati (Mean). This put me at fourth in the competition, and thus fourth in the world for the VGC 2013 season.
      Many thanks to all of you who have read this far, I hope you enjoyed my team write up and I hope this gave you a good insight into the way that I think.
      I want to thank everyone that I met in Vancouver this year, so cool to finally put faces to names on a screen! Shout out goes to all of team UK for our exceptional showing this year compared to years previously, and to my good friend and fellow player Josh Peat, without whom I would likely still just be playing with my Stealth Rock Cradily on Coliseum. Props to him for helping with the title, too.
      Hope to see you all again in Washington DC for 2014!
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      By now you are probably wondering just how Dream Radar RNGing works and why it is different from the other 5th Generation RNG methods.  The following sections will break it down for easy comprehension.
      Advancing the IV and PID Frames
      Perhaps one of the largest influences on the RNG is that the IV Frames and the PID Frames are both advanced simultaneously by two frames each.  Hence, while searching for seeds, you will be forced to only accept results with either even- or odd-numbered target frames, depending on your starting IV frame, which varies depending on the Pokémon being RNGed.  Furthermore, as both frames are advanced at once, you will have no control over what PID frame you hit.  The logical extension of this is that you will have to search through multiple seeds until you find one on which the Nature you are looking for ends up on the frame "attached" to the seed.
      Transfer Slots
      Another unique aspect of RNGing Dream Radar Pokémon is that there are "slots" in which the Pokémon are sent, since Dream Radar allows up to six Pokémon to be transferred at once.  Additionally, the frames for both IVs and PIDs are advanced for each Pokémon transferred.  If this weren't the case, you would be able to get six Adamant penta-flawless Pokémon at once!  Additionally, the amount by which the frames are advanced varies slightly depending on if the Pokemon in the preceding slots are genderless or not, such as Porygon and Beldum.  However, all the Therians and Legendaries in Dream Radar do not occupy normal transfer slots, and instead have their own separate slots.  The mechanics for these slots, however, are in most ways identical to regular slot 1 and slot 2 transfers, and shall be covered more in-depth later.
      The Memory Link PID offset
      An important note must be made concerning the use of the Memory Link option in the Unova Link menu.  Not only does it affect your starting PID frame for every RNG, but it also causes an additional -1 offset when RNGing Dream Radar Pokémon!  If you have used Memory Link, take this into account while searching for a seed with the desired Nature and when verifying if you hit your timer0 (more info on both later on).  However, there is a rather curious bug in the game programming that causes some people's game cards to be treated as if they have used Memory Link, whether or not they really have!  Fret not, as this offset is tied to the game cartridge rather than the seed, so as long as you determine if your cart is affected by this, you can account for it in all future RNG attempts. This is the main reason that it is important to practice this RNG at least once per cartridge before attempting to RNG a Therian or 4th Generation Legend!
      So! On to the main event!
      Finding Seeds
      Under most circumstances, finding a seed is the most time-consuming part of trying to RNG Pokémon from Dream Radar while using RNG Reporter.  This stems from the fact that RNG Reporter has no built-in tool for finding Dream Radar seeds, and hence you need to search through the seeds manually.  Thankfully, it sounds worse than it is, and once you are familiar with the process, it can actually be done fairly quickly (as long as you aren't too unlucky).
      Using the Time Finder and selecting seeds
      The first step is to start up RNG Reporter and open the 5th Generation Time Finder window.  For the sake of brevity, only slots one and two, which are the only ones used for RNGing Therians and Legendaries, will be discussed in the main body of this guide.  First, set the year you would like to RNG in, and select all twelve months.  Due to the rarity of seeds with a useful Nature attached to them, you want to give yourself a wide variety of seeds.  Next, set the min and max frames.  Since it is possible to verify that you have correctly hit your seed with this RNG while you are advancing the frame, it is recommended that you set the minimum frame to at least 8 frames above the starting frame, so that you will have four advancements with which to verify your seed.  It is incredibly rare to have two seeds with the same sequence of the first four spinners.  As far as the max frame goes, set it to at least 50 frames above the minimum, in order to have a good spread of seeds (but don't go too high; otherwise you will be sitting for 20 minutes advancing the frame for no good reason).  After you have set the min and max frames, enter your desired IV spread, allowing yourself the widest variety of IV spreads as you are willing to accept.  Of course, if you are aiming for something like HP Flying Thundurus, you would still like a decent base power for Hidden Power... which is why RNG Reporter has a helpful pair of options, HP_E and HP_O, which only search for IVs that would create a Base 70 power for Hidden Power.  If you are using these options, it is recommended to add another 50 or so frames to the max frame.  Leave everything else blank, and your screen should look something like the one below:

      Now here's where Transfer Slots come into play.  The starting frame for IVs when RNGing Dream Radar Pokémon is 8.  Because the starting frame for IVs advances 13 after each Pokémon transferred, and because frames can only be advanced two at a time, slots 1, 3 and 5 can only use even seeds (such as the ones above ), and slots 2, 4 and 6 can only use odd seeds.  A useful trick that can be used while doing this is to add eight to the starting frame to automatically give you 4 advancements for verification purposes.  If this is done, you can always set your minimum frame for slot 1 Pokemon to 16, and 29 for slot 2 Pokemon.  After slot 2, just add another 13 to the number for each slot.  For the purposes of this guide, I will use the first seed listed in the window above (highlighted in blue) to illustrate this process.
      Finding the Nature hit
      So now that you have a list of possible seeds, it's time to search through them until you find a good Nature!  Go back to the main window of RNG Reporter, change the method to "Gen 5 PIDRNG", set Max Results to somewhere between 100 and 300, copy a suitable seed from the Time Finder into the appropriate box, and check the box labeled "Black White 2?".  If you have used Memory Link on the game you are RNGing with, check the Memory Link box as well, and then click "Calculate Initial PIDRNG Frame".  Now that you have your starting frame for PIDs, click Generate to create a list of Natures.  Be aware that Dream Radar Pokémon cannot be Shiny, so there is no sense in searching for a Shiny frame.  As of this time, it has not been determined how Dream Radar generates a Pokémon's gender, but it usually will be female, so you can ignore everything but the Natures.  Besides, considering that you can breed any female Dream Radar Pokémon for a different gender later on, this is purely trivial.  Your main window should look something like this before clicking Generate:

      So that's all fine and good, but what frame will I actually hit?  The frame you hit is determined by the following equation:
      Nature Frame = Initial PID frame + offset + (IV target Frame - [8 + {13 * slots before current slot}]) + (5 * number of slots before current slot)
      This equation looks a bit daunting at first, but it can be greatly simplified as long as you are only RNGing in slots 1 or 2.  Here are the simplified forms:
      Slot 1: Nature Frame = Initial PID Frame + offset + IV target Frame - 8
      Slot 2: Nature Frame = Initial PID Frame + offset + IV target Frame - 16
      In these equations, "offset" is equal to 1 for genderless Pokémon, and 2 for Pokémon that have a gender.  Since most of the Pokémon from Dream Radar have genders, usually you can treat offset as 2.  Furthermore, game cards that have used Memory Link or act as if you have will possess an additional offset of -1. Whether or not your game is treated as if it has used Memory Link can be determined the first time you RNG a Pokémon from Dream Radar. (More on that below.)
      Using the seed I chose earlier, my target frame is 42 and my initial PID Frame is 51, so if I plug those numbers into the Slot 1 equation, I get:
      Nature Frame = 51 + 2 + 42 -8 = 87
      Hence, the Nature my Pokémon would have is Sassy.  However, since my card acts as if I have used Memory Link, the Nature Frame will be 86 instead, making it Quirky, as shown in blue below.  On a side note, if I was transferring a genderless Pokémon such as Porygon or Beldum, the offset would be one instead of two, making the Nature Relaxed. (shown in red)

      Mechanics for Therians and Legendaries
      As stated earlier, Therians and Legendaries have their own transfer slots.  But how do these work?  The simple answer is that they work almost no different from regular slot 1 and slot 2 RNGs... almost.  Therians are RNGed as if they are gendered Pokémon that are in slot 2 with a gendered Pokémon in slot 1 (although there really isn't one there).  Therefore, you can use the short form of the slot 2 equation given above without any problem.  The "4th Generation Mascot" Legendaries are even simpler than Therians.  They behave exactly like slot 1 gendered Pokémon, making the matter almost trivial.  However, it must always be remembered that unless you back up your Dream Radar save file and have multiple Black 2 or White 2 game cards (or are willing to restart them), you only have one chance to RNG each of these.  Hence, you should never under any circumstances transfer any other Pokémon with these Therians and Legendaries, since it has not been researched how other Pokémon affect the special transfer slots, nor has it been attempted to transfer multiple special Pokémon at once.
      RNGing the Pokémon
      Now that you've found a good seed to RNG with, it's time to actually get that Pokémon!
      Sending it from Dream Radar
      The first step is to place the cartridge you would like to RNG with into your 3DS, and enter the Dream Radar app.  If you are transferring a Therian or a Legendary, here is the point to back up the SD card!  On the main menu, select "Send Research Data", and make sure that the Pokémon you wish to RNG is in the slot that corresponds to the seed you found.  If it isn't, you need to find a new seed, taking into account what slot it is in.  Additionally, items do not affect the RNG process, so they can be ignored for all intents and purposes.  If everything is correct, confirm that you are ready to send the Pokémon.  After it is sent, you can turn off the 3DS and put the game cartridge into the DS you wish to RNG with.
      Hitting and verifying your seed
      Now, to get to the heart of the process of RNGing Dream Radar Pokémon: hitting and verifying your seed!  Since verifying your seed takes place at the same time as advancing frames, this guide will go straight to verification.  In the main window of RNG Reporter, click "Researcher" on the right side of the toolbar at the top of the window.  A fairly sterile window with a decent amount of buttons and text entry fields will appear.  Next to "Common RNGs", open the drop-down list and select BWRNG.  Then to the right, next to "Custom 1", set the first list to "32Bit High", set the second to ">>", and enter the number 29 into the text box.  This information will allow RNG Reporter to list the directions the waiting icon will point to while verifying your seed and advancing the frames.  Set Max Results to a number somewhere around three or four hundred.  Paste the seed you are RNGing with into the corresponding box, and your window should look something like below:

      If everything is correct, click Generate, and a list of the seeds corresponding to the frames of the seed you are using will appear, in addition to a row of columns marked "Custom 1", "Custom 2", etc.  Thanks to all those boxes you set values in, the "Custom 1" column will show a number between 0 and 7  next to each frame.  That number tells you what direction the waiting spinner will be pointing when it starts on that frame, allowing you to test if you really hit your timer0!  The process of verifying your seed is very easy, if not attention-demanding: after turning on the DS on-time as if you were hitting a Simple Seed, enter the "Unova Link" menu instead of loading your save file.  From there, enter the "Key System" menu and select "Send and Receive Keys".  The game will ask if you would like to launch DS Wireless Communications, and if you say yes, the game will prompt you to have your DS system face another, and a waiting spinner will appear in the lower right.  Of course, we are only interested in the spinner!  Make sure you are watching the lower right corner when you say "Yes", and take note of which direction the icon was pointing when it started spinning.  It moves fast, so it requires all your attention.  Press B to stop it, write down what direction it was pointing when it started, but do not leave the menu yet. Both the IV frame and the PID frame were just advanced by 2!  When you try hitting your seed, you need to continually stop and restart the spinner to advance the frame as far as necessary.  The question is, how many times do you have to do it?  The number of times you need to advance the frame is derived from this equation:
      Advancements = (IV target Frame - 8 + [13 * slots before current slot]) ÷ 2
      So, the next step is to confirm if you really hit your seed.  This is one of the places where your game card's Memory Link frame offset comes into account, and is identified for the first time in the event of your game acting as if it has used Memory Link.  In the researcher window, scroll to the frame before your starting PID frame (as given in the main window).

      So, if you look at the image above, you will see a table of frames and seeds that is similar to what you should see at this point.  After you go through the process of hitting your seed, try verifying it using the method stated above.  If your game has not used Memory Link and does not act as if you have, the first spinner should correspond to the frame after your initial frame.  For example, the seed in the image above has a starting frame of 51, so the first spin should land on 52, pointing to the upper left (7).  Each of the following advancements will appear every other frame after the first, so the next 4 in the image would be 2-0-3-1, that is, right, up, bottom-right, top-right.  However, if you have that Memory Link offset, the first advancement will occur directly on the starting frame, and all the following spins will be in essence one frame before the regular.  The frames with a light blue box around them in the above image illustrate this. Remember, if you find at this stage that you have a PID offset of -1, your Nature frame will also be one less than the one derived from the earlier equation.
      If after advancing the frame four times it appears that you have not hit your seed (checking both the regular sequence of frames and the offset-influenced sequence), you need to try again, since you doubtlessly missed your timer0.  Once you have determined that you hit your timer0, all that is left is to finish doing as many advancements as determined by the equation above.  Now, to receive the Pokémon in-game and check if you succeeded!
      Receiving your Pokémon - Success?
      Leave the Key Transfer menu, but do not leave the Unova Link menu.  Should you do so, the RNG will be reseeded and you will need to try hitting your seed again.  Go to the 3DS Link menu, and say yes to receiving your Pokémon from Dream Radar.  The game will save, and then you can leave Unova Link and enter the game.  Go to any PC and open the storage system, find the newly-transferred Pokémon, and place it in your party.  Take it to the Judge in the Battle Subway.  If everything was done right, your Pokémon should have the IVs you found in the Time Finder!  That is the part you can be more certain of success with.  If for some reason your IVs are incorrect, you probably did the wrong number of advancements or missed your timer0.  The latter can be avoided by always allowing for at least four advancements, after which you can be reasonably sure that you hit the right one.
      Now for the more uncertain part: did you get the right Nature?  Open the status screen of your RNGed Dream Radar Pokémon, and check the Nature.  If you didn't run into any indications of an offset, you should have the right Nature!  If you don't, go to the main window of RNG Reporter, and look at the frame right before the expected Nature.  Chances are, it will match the Pokémon you just got, indicating that your game card behaves as if you used Memory Link.  The good news is that (hopefully) it was only a practice Pokémon, and you can count on all further RNGs with that game card having the offset! (Which is easily worked around by taking it into account while checking the Nature paired with each seed.)
      Well, it is a tough road to RNGing your first Pokémon from Dream Radar, but now you can take pride in having successfully learned one of the most complicated RNG processes out there.  After the first one, all future Dream Radar RNGs will hardly be difficult at all, and with patience you can have access to all sorts of Dream Radar exclusive Dream World Pokémon!  Good luck, and happy RNGing!
    • By HeroOfTheWinds
      Hax. A phenomenon known the whole world over that has caused thousands of dc's and rage quits. A startling number of players curse this entity without any idea of how little (or much) reason there is to be upset. Like all RPG's, Pokémon is no different in its incorporation of luck, ranging from full paralysis to critical hits. But just how random are these events? This is the question that this article will answer, and hopefully knowledge of these chances will help players to realize more fully the weight of luck in the game and its consequences.
      Special Conditions
      So in just what ways can random events affect battles? Well, look no farther than the most common means of placing opponents into the menacing palm of the RNG: special conditions. These effects tend to have fairly low chances of being inflicted or taking effect, and yet they are the easiest to cause due to the large number of means by which they may occur.  Be aware, however, that all special conditions except Infatuation can be blocked by Safeguard or Lum Berry. Now, to take a closer look at each one and its causes:
      Paralyze: Grinding into a static halt
      As the heading of this section suggests, the primary cause of the paralyze condition is the wide variety of Electric moves. Just what does this shock you with? Try a 25% chance of being completely unable to use a move. As if that wasn't enough of a cripple (pun intended, naturally), the Pokémon's speed drops to an astonishing 25% of it's original value. But with every cloud comes a silver lining, and in this case, it's the fact that no move has anything higher than a 30% chance of causing paralysis, barring Thunder Wave and Zap Cannon, which always inflict it. Notable among the moves with a 30% chance are Thunder and Discharge, due to their fairly common use in VGC. Note that the ever-standard Thunderbolt also has a 10% chance to cause it. Additionally, it would be remiss to neglect mentioning that the Static and Effect Spore abilities also can cause paralysis, with a 30% and 10% chance, respectively.
      So what's to be done once your Pokémon have been Paralyzed? Since Heal Bell and Aromatherapy are usually not worth the move space, methods to actually remove the condition are scarce. However, if more than one Pokémon is paralyzed, and you have access to Trick Room, at least one of the side effects of paralysis could be turned into a boon, as a 75% decrease in speed means a nearly quadruple speed bonus in TR. Also, moves like Psycho Shift and Abilities like Synchronize can cause the opponent to keep your misery company. However, an ounce of prevention always helps, and if you see a T-wave coming, there's nothing like switching an immune Ground type in to be a “shock” absorber.
      Freeze: Not as cool as you think
      Chances are, after playing VGC for a while, it's inevitable that you will run into the cold embrace of the Freeze condition. Perhaps one of the most terrible conditions, frozen Pokémon have only a 20% chance of thawing on any given turn. And unlike Confusion and Sleep, there's no turn limit on how long you can be frozen. The bright side? All moves with a chance of causing Freeze only have a 10% rate of causing it. Not even the mighty Blizzard has a higher chance of causing Freeze...! But as the case is with all other luck-based occurrences, it's bound to happen sooner or later. So if you really do not want to remain a Popsicle, consider attacking your own Pokémon with a Fire move. Without fail that will thaw your 'mon without even the slightest trace of frostbite, getting it immediately back into the action. Furthermore, despair not if your Fire type gets frozen itself, since any move that involves being encased in fire with thaw the user. (Read: Flare Blitz.)  Once again, forethought will save frustration, as Sunny weather will prevent the Freeze condition from happening in the first place.
      Sleep: You snooze, you lose
      Sleep is one of those conditions that can be either a friend or an enemy. Lasting one to three turns, it was mercifully decided that a Pokémon could not sleep indefinitely. In fact, there is no bias toward any of the three lengths of sleep, so there's a perfect one out of three chance for each duration. However, absolutely no luck is involved with the move Rest, which always makes you sleep for two turns (provided you don't switch out and reset the counter). Also, the Effect Spore ability has a 10% chance of causing Sleep upon contact. Perhaps some of you have considered trying to use the Early Bird ability, but haven't been sure how much of a benefit it is. The answer: very. There is always a 33.3% chance of waking up immediately, and otherwise, the Pokémon will only sleep one short turn. But as with all conditions, it can be prevented from happening to begin with. One way is to effectively predict around the common Spore users (Amoongus, Parasect, Breloom, and Smeargle) until you can KO them, another is to hold a Chesto or Lum Berry, and finally the Insomnia and Vital Spirit abilities always prevent it.
      Confusion: Such a terrible thing
      The other status effect that has a finite length, Confusion lasts longer than sleep, clocking it at two to five turns. The logical explanation of this effect is that each turn there is “only” a 50% of confusion taking effect, damaging the Pokémon and robbing it of an attack. With the exception of Swagger, Flatter, and Confuse Ray, however, no move has more than a 30% chance of confusing the target. Take note, though, since the rain-loving Hurricane has the full 30% of sending your 'mon to the insane asylum.
      The coin-flip involved in the confusion status effect sparks an interesting and never-ending debate: Switch out to remove the condition, endangering the incoming Pokémon, or test your luck, and hope for a solid hit? The answer is largely situational. If there is something significant to gain by taking the chance on that very turn, it could very well be worth it. But if the Pokémon that needs to switch in doesn't stand a chance to live through the switch, and is vital for a later purpose, it would probably be better to take the chance. Sometimes you may have no choice. Hence, that bittersweet term, “luck.”
      Seeing as how Infatuation also has the same chance of taking effect as Confusion, and because it is rarely seen competitively, it shall be treated in this section. With a 50% chance of immobilizing the opponent,  in reality only about half your Pokémon could ever suffer Infatuation since it only works on Pokémon of the opposite gender. On top of it, there are only two ways to do so: First, through the move Attract, which always causes it (if the gender conditions are met), and second, through the Cute Charm ability, which has a 30% chance of taking effect. You be the judge!
      Burn: Too hot to handle
      The final status effect that shall be covered in this article is that of the ever-present Burn. Causing a bit of damage every turn, and mercilessly slicing the Attack stat in half, nobody wants to get burnt. And that's just what Will-o-Wisp and Inferno do without fail, provided they hit. To put salt in the wound, other moves can get as high as a 30% chance of burning the opponent, such as Scald.  Additionally, the Flame Body ability, common on such standard Pokémon as Volcarona and even Chandelure, can be a threat to any of your mons that touch the foe, particularly since it shares the 30% effect rate.  Be aware that Fire types cannot be burned, and ones with the Flash Fire ability will even boost the power of fire moves should they be hit with Fire. Scald definitely is the odd man out, however, being a Water move. Just by packing a Lum Berry, however, you can exploit the virtual panacea for all your status-problem needs.
      Effect Spore:  Don't mess with the 'shrooms!
      Finally, a few words are in order for the Ability which has already been mentioned twice in this article: Effect Spore.
      The Effect Spore ability has a 30% chance of causing one of three special conditions: Poison, Paralyze, and Sleep, with 10% allocated to each. While this may sound terrifying, there are a couple of scenarios to consider.  First, direct contact with the spore-er in question is necessary for the ability to take effect.  Second, 10% of that chance is expended on a competitively weak condition, Poison. Last, the ability could cause major headaches if it is being abused within a TR team, as it could paralyze the foe and bring it down to a speed that thrives in TR.
      While it was just stated that regular Poison is somewhat useless, it still is necessary to state that there is one more odd chance of contracting it: Poison Point.  The ability is on few common Pokémon, but when it's there, be wary of its 30% effect rate.
      Flinches, Criticals, and Accuracy/Evasion Stat Levels
      Now that the most controllable and abused randomizers have been covered, it's time to take a look at the less controllable (and hence more infuriating) events. Just what are these? Flinches, critical hits, and the pairing of accuracy and evasion levels.
      Flinches: Just when you thought you were focused...
      That dreadful moment when your Pokémon flinches and misses out on that match deciding Close Combat: that is what makes flinches so dangerous. Of course, everyone knows that flinches can be controlled with the move Fake Out, but after that, there's a bigger chance of being made to flinch than most people realize. Many competitively viable moves such as Air Slash, Rock Slide, Icicle Crash and Iron Head and have a whopping 30% of causing a flinch. Additionally, their close cousins Dark Pulse, Waterfall and Zen Headbutt still have a 20% of causing a flinch. So, those numbers could be much worse. Consider this: many teams have two Pokémon who can use Rock Slide. If both of them use it at the same time, each of your Pokémon has a 51% chance of flinching. What can be done, then? Well, there are two approaches: if you are faster than the potential cause of a flinch, there's no problem, since a flinch only works before you've made your attack. Second, the ability Inner Focus makes your Pokémon immune to flinching, even from Fake Out, making it a valuable tool in the current metagame. On a side note, the item King's Rock often garners questions about whether it increases the chance of a flinch enough to make it worthwhile. The answer is this: it adds a 10% chance of flinching, but only when using damaging moves without any secondary effects (paralysis, stat boosts). While this is nothing amazing, a Pokemon with the Skill Link Ability can use five-strike moves with a combined 41% chance of causing the foe to flinch. Additionally, most of the moves with a 30% chance of flinching so not have any secondary effects, so this formidable sounding item can increase that chance to 40%.
      Critical Hits: It's a head-shot!!
      The greatest match-flippers in the whole game: the dreaded Critical Hits. Not only do they double the damage normally dealt (or triple it, as is the case with the Ability Sniper), but they ignore all negative stat changes on the Pokémon that scores the hit, and all defense boosts on the target. That's right; your Latios at -4 Sp. Atk can hit with Draco Meteor at double-full force if he scores a critical. So what is the chance of these minitaure catastrophes happening? The regular chance is 1/16, or 6.25%. However, a wide variety of moves that double this chance, including Stone Edge, Leaf Blade, Psycho Cut, Drill Run, Cross Chop, Cross Poison and Slash, bringing the chance up to 12.5%. Two items that further boost this ratio are Razor Claw and Scope Lens, bringing the regular chances up to 12.5% and 25%, respectively. Hence, it would appear that 25% is the highest it could go, right? In practice, yes, but it can indeed get higher: Focus Energy raises the critical hit ratio one more point higher, bringing that 25% up to 33.3%. The upside of this is that the metagame is so fast-paced that it would not be worth the effort to devote an extra turn to raising the critical rate that high. But there is one last factor: the Super Luck Ability, held only by Togekiss, Honchkrow, Absol, and Unfezant, which doubles the current critical “stat-stage.” That means that Unfezant's Air Cutter has a base 33.3% chance of scoring a critical hit....! Add in a Scope Lens, and it reaches the highest level: 50%. Only two moves will ever get critical hits every time: Storm Throw and Frost Breath, both of which are on Pokémon who don't have much use for the move. While criticals in and of themselves may not be the worst thing out there, they certainly have a huge impact on matches, often KO-ing something that would usually survive. On top of that, there are only two ways to avoid critical hits: the Ability Battle Armor, and the move Lucky Chant. While these may sound useful, most of the Pokémon who get them either have a better ability at their disposal, or are virtually wasting a move slot just for peace-of-mind. The bottom line: don't rage if a critical or two happens in a battle. Statistically speaking, there are four Pokémon attacking each turn with a 1/16 chance of getting a critical hit; hence one could easily happen every four turns.
      Accuracy and Evasion:  Missed it by *that* much
      Accuracy is a fact of Pokémon.  Every attack has an accuracy rating between 30 and 100, naturally standing for percentages.  Simple, right?  Of course! Er... until you find out that accuracy can be affected by stat stages both of evasion and accuracy itself.  Furthermore, various items and Abilities can affect these stats as well.  Now, to make a more accurate explanation of these factors...
      Stat stages for Accuracy and Evasion are complicated.  More so than regular stat changes.   The biggest reason for this is because most people are not aware how Pokémon's accuracy is being calculated.  The answer is that Accuracy multiplies your move's base accuracy, while Evasion divides it.  So, if the foe has six stages of evasion, divide your accuracy by three, and if you have six stages of Accuracy, multiply your accuracy by three.  To put it in a formula:  (Move Accuracy) × (Accuracy stat) ÷ (foe's Evasion stat).  For example, if you are using the 90% accurate Draco Meteor with 1.66x Accuracy against a Blissey at four stages of Evasion, Draco Meteor will have a virtual accuracy of about 64%.   Now for the percentages themselves, which are the same for Accuracy and Evasion:

      Negative Stages |       Positive Stages
      -6 = Accuracy x 0.33|       6 = Accuracy x 3
      -5 = x .375|       5 = x 2.66
      -4 = x 0.428 |       4 = x 2.33
      -3 = x 0.5 |       3 = x 2
      -2 = x 0.6 |       2 = x 1.66
      -1 = x 0.75 |       1 = x 1.33So now that the values associated with accuracy and evasion have been fully explained, the various items and Abilities which automatically affect these entities can be easily illustrated.  The most common Evasion raising Abilities are Sand Veil and Snow Cloak, which activate in Sandstorm and Hail weather respectively, and each boosts the Pokémon's evasion by one stage.  In other words, that Garchomp in the sand will only have a 75% chance of being hit... pretty big in this fast-paced game.  On the contrary, the CompoundEyes Ability raises your own Pokémon's accuracy by 30%, explaining how Galvantula's Thunder hits about as often as Draco Meteor despite the move's base 70 Accuracy.  As far as items go, BrightPowder raises Evasion by 10%, while Lax Incense raises it a measly 5%.  (Who uses it, anyway?)  Accuracy-boosting items include Wide Lens, Zoom Lens, and Micle Berry.  Wide Lens increases accuracy by 10% of the base accuracy of a move, while Zoom Lens increases it by 20%... but only if the Pokémon moves last.  Micle Berry is not much more viable than Zoom Lens, since it activates only when your Pokémon is down and in the red.  The upside is that it increases the next move's Accuracy by 20%, so at least your last attack is more unlikely to miss!
      Serene Grace:  Blithely causing ragequits
      Serene Grace is a peculiar Ability that deserves its very own section, considering that it doubles the chance of any added effect a move might cause.  Air Slash and Rock Slide, while they only have a 30% chance of causing a flinch, take a huge leap up to 60% in the hands of Togekiss, Blissey and Dunsparce, making for quite the threat.  Furthermore, attacks like Blizzard that only have a 10% chance of causing the Frozen condition now have a 20% chance of crystallizing your best attacker...!  Take it from me, when Serene Grace is around, your state of mind will more than likely be anything BUT serene.
      Random Move Effects and Damage Randomization
      Now for the final elements of chance in Pokémon battles:  those that occur in the moves themselves, the random factor applied to damage from attacks, and speed ties.  While easily overlooked, these are the factors that usually make or break the outcome of the battle. Will Bullet Seed hit two times or five times?  Will your Hitmontop or his Hitmontop go first?  And is that Dark Pulse going to do 48% or 50% damage, determining whether or not that Jellicent is KO'd?  Read on for the answers.
      Moves with extra effects:  So NOW you fear my Metagross
      The first category of attacks that randomly help the player are those that occasionally boost one (or more) of the user's stats.  Examples include Meteor Mash, which has a 20% chance of raising the user's Attack one stage, Steel Wing, which has a 10% chance of raising the Pokémon's Defense one stage, and Charge Beam, which has a whopping 70% chance of raising the user's Special Attack one stage (and face it, the move is so weak it NEEDS that boost).  Also worth a mention are AncientPower, Silver Wind and Ominous Wind, which all have a 10% chance of raising every stat one stage, except Accuracy and Evasion.  It bears noting, however, that none of these moves should be relied on for strategies, since most offer only a 10-20% chance of taking effect, and the ones that offer more usually are too weak to be worth the set up.  In other words, gloat over the boosts if you like, but do not expect them when you most need them.
      Next are the multi-strike moves!  Who said that hitting the foe once per turn is enough?  Jokes aside, these moves hit 2-5 times when you attack (unless you OHKO, of course).  However, the odds are stacked in favor of hitting only two or three times, since there is only a combined 25% chance of hitting four or five times.  For the cold, calculated odds:  37.5% chance each of hitting two or three times, and a 12.5% chance each for hitting four or five times.  So if you plan on using Bullet Seed, Icicle Spear, Rock Blast, Bone Rush, or any of the other multi-strike moves, it stands to reason that you should try managing your EVs to allow for a KO of intended targets with only two or three strikes.  On the other hand, Cloyster and Cinccino both have Skill Link, allowing the moves to always hit 5 times... (Oh, woe to those who cross a Skill Link Pokémon!)
      Finally, there are the attacks with a random chance of dropping one of the foe's stats.  Not only do these lucky breaks generally make the foes more vulnerable in the following turns, they sometimes can be so devastating that they force a switch!  One move that causes this is Crunch, with a 20% chance of lowering Defense one stage.  Furthermore, Bug Buzz, Psychic, Energy Ball and Earth Power all have a 10% chance of lowering Special Defense one stage, while Shadow Ball has a 20% chance of doing the same thing.  So just as with the moves that might boost your stats, these moves that lower stats are no more reliable, and ought to be merely welcomed as offering an added sting to your foe's wounds.
      The random damage multiplier:  Lamenting a Pokémon's inconsistent strength
      Once you've played Pokémon for a while, it is almost impossible to notice that there is a slight variation in how much damage an attack deals each time, even though your Pokémon and the foe's remain unchanged.  The reason is simple:  Game Freak decided that random parahax and unbelievably badly timed 10% chances of Freeze did not make battles random enough, so they made move damage random too.  Without expounding on the whole, mildly complicated damage formula, I'll reduce it to this:  every attack's damage will be multiplied by a random number between 0.85 and 1.  Consequently, it is proven that your Pokémon is occasionally responsible for a loss because it didn't give its all!  Not really.  Regardless, this should be considered when developing EV spreads, just as Jio has mentioned in his article on EV spreads.  While calculating spreads, always assume every attack will be at it's weakest, and EV accordingly.  Alternatively, find a percentage of a certain damage threshold that you are comfortable with.  It can't hurt to cross your fingers while attacking a Pokémon, either.
      Speed Ties:  Heads, I win; Tails, please miss
      Last, but not least, there is the issue of Speed Ties.  With so many Pokémon out there who share speed tiers with others, it's bound to happen sooner or later that two Pokémon have the exact same speed stat.  In the event of this tie, Pokémon does what every other rational being does when a decision needs to be made without bias: it flips a coin.  You read that correctly, in the event of a speed tie, there is a 50% chance of your Pokémon going before the opponent, and vice-versa.  The most unfortunate part is that on certain teams, particularly Trick Room teams and teams with Swift Swimmers or Sand Rushers, this event is nearly unavoidable.  While not much can be done to prevent them, it still is wise to have a plan for when they do inevitably happen.
      Whether you wish to know this information in order to better weigh the risks, or else if you want to maximize the odds of “hax”, the same way Manoj Sunny (MangoSol) did in his 2012 Worlds team as well as others before him, arming yourself with a thorough knowledge of probability of in-battle effects will surely lead to a greater understanding of the game, and hopefully the development of a better playstyle.
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