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Published on October 9th, 2014 | by Scott

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VGC 2015 North American Autumn Regionals Preview Part 2

We’re down to the last two Regional weekends of the VGC 2014 format! This week there’ll only be one Regional, so all eyes will be on Texas. Most of what I wrote previewing Autumn Regionals in general last week is still relevant, but this week we have some usage data from the first two Regionals’ top cuts and a surprisingly packed Texas Regional to cover.

Prizes

Prizes are the same as last week. Play for a shot at a new Nintendo 3DS XL! Also awarded are big chunks of Championship Points, which may or may not help you qualify for the 2015 Pokémon World Championships in location unknown.

1st Place

  • A Pokémon VG Regional Championships 1st Place award
  • A Nintendo 3DSXL system
  • A combination of 72 booster packs from current Pokémon TCG expansions
  • 120 Championship Points

2nd Place

  • A Pokémon VG Regional Championships 2nd Place award
  • A combination of 72 booster packs from current Pokémon TCG expansions
  • 100 Championship Points

3rd and 4th Place

  • A Pokémon VG Regional Championships 3rd or 4th Place award
  • A combination of 36 booster packs from current Pokémon TCG expansions
  • 80 Championship Points

5th Place through 8th Place

  • A combination of 18 booster packs from current Pokémon TCG expansions
  • 60 Championship Points

9th Place through 16th Place

  • A combination of 9 booster packs from current Pokémon TCG expansions
  • 40 Championship Points

17th Place through 32nd Place

  • 30 Championship Points (if division attendance is 64 or greater)

33rd Place through 64th Place

  • 20 Championship Points (if division attendance is 128 or greater)

65th Place through 128th Place

  • 10 Championship Points (if division attendance is 256 or greater)

The Metagame

We’ll make a big post with all the teams from each Regional’s top cut like usual after the end of the full set of Autumn Regionals. For now, let’s take a look at the usage data of the top cut teams from Autumn Regionals so far to get a better idea of the metagame at Regionals this season. We’re a team short right now, but we do have data from 23 of the 24 teams that cut in Masters last weekend:

Rank Pokémon Uses % of Teams
1 Mawile 12 52.17%
2 Garchomp 11 47.83%
3 Talonflame 8 34.78%
3 Zapdos 8 34.78%
5 Ludicolo 7 30.43%
6 Heat Rotom 6 26.09%
6 Hydreigon 6 26.09%
8 Aegislash 5 21.74%
8 Charizard 5 21.74%
8 Gardevoir 5 21.74%
8 Salamence 5 21.74%
8 Tyranitar 5 21.74%
13 Politoed 4 17.39%
14 Aerodactyl 3 13.04%
14 Gothitelle 3 13.04%
16 Amoonguss 2 8.70%
16 Azumarill 2 8.70%
16 Ferrothorn 2 8.70%
16 Gengar 2 8.70%
16 Greninja 2 8.70%
16 Kangaskhan 2 8.70%
16 Lapras 2 8.70%
16 Lucario 2 8.70%
16 Mamoswine 2 8.70%
16 Manectric 2 8.70%
16 Nidoking 2 8.70%
16 Scrafty 2 8.70%
16 Staraptor 2 8.70%
16 Wash Rotom 2 8.70%
30 Bisharp 1 4.35%
30 Chandelure 1 4.35%
30 Chesnaught 1 4.35%
30 Conkeldurr 1 4.35%
30 Gyarados 1 4.35%
30 Hariyama 1 4.35%
30 Haxorus 1 4.35%
30 Liepard 1 4.35%
30 Machamp 1 4.35%
30 Marowak 1 4.35%
30 Mow Rotom 1 4.35%
30 Noivern 1 4.35%
30 Pachirisu 1 4.35%
30 Raichu 1 4.35%
30 Sableye 1 4.35%
30 Scizor 1 4.35%
30 Venusaur 1 4.35%

Thanks to Zach and all the people who contributed information for helping get this together. Some points I want to draw out relating to the data:

  • As with the 2014 World Championships and the recent Arena Cup in Germany, Mawile was by far the most common Mega. It took a while, but the most generally strong Mega that counters Kangaskhan has taken its rightful spot on top.
  • It is a little nostalgic to see Zapdos and Garchomp occupying the top non-Mega slots. Four teams used them in tandem!
  • Another classic tandem doing well last week was Ludicolo and Politoed. They were actually only used together three times, however: Ludicolo flew solo most of the weekend.
  • Garchomp seems to be the one Pokémon who always stays on top of usage in the VGC 2014 format no matter what trends are in the metagame. I think that says a lot about the type of Pokémon it is. Garchomp is never dominant, but it’s never a hindrance either, and it has a good matchup with most Megas. It is the safest Pokémon in the format.
  • Kangaskhan and Venusaur, the two most common Megas the last time we had big events in the United States, didn’t do so well this time. They combined for only three uses.
  • Aegislash also fell a long way, from a tie as the 2nd most common Pokémon at US Nationals to only five uses at Regionals.
  • 46 different Pokémon between 23 teams is pretty impressive diversity this late in the format.
  • Given the emphasis on Rain and Mawile, I was a little surprised to see only five Charizard, especially considering only one was from Philadelphia.
  • I am a little curious how much the rise of Mawile and fall of Kangaskhan is due to what top players are using instead of what they are countering. I think if you cut off the teams from last week’s top cuts and just look at the names of players, you get mostly players many people would have expected to make it. I wonder if their choice to move away from Kangaskhan isn’t as much the reason why it fell out of the top cuts as their decision instead to counter it, since you’d expect the best players to finish on top relatively irrespective of team choice. It’d be interesting to hear from some of the top players who didn’t cut to see if they’d tried the Kangaskhan route and fell short for comparison.
  • The diversity even on top is pretty interesting. Only five Pokémon were on appreciably more than a fourth of teams in top cut. I sometimes wish we’d stick to a more consistent format each year, and I think watching usage trends this year helps to explain why. We actually ended up with one of the most balanced usage lists of the season from top top bottom now that people have a better idea of what they need to counter.

Last Week’s Winners:

Philadelphia Champion Aaron Zheng (Cybertron)’s Team

mawile-megagothitellehariyamaludicolorotom-heatsalamence

Aaron used nearly the same team he used to put up a solid 4-2 record at the 2014 World Championships. He did make some minor changes to most of the Pokémon, which you can read in more detail once he gets his report up here or check out his YouTube in the mean time. On a base level, he was one of the many players who moved away from Kangaskhan for this set of Regionals, switching over to the more conventional Trick Room Mega of Mawile. He also swapped Ferrothorn out for Ludicolo, which gave him another reliable Special Attacker, a second source of Fake Out, and some help with probable opponents choices like Politoed, Rotom, and Garchomp.

Phoenix Champion Chase Lybbert (I am a Rookie)’s Team

charizard-mega-yraichumamoswinesalamencesableyeazumarill

Chase’s team doesn’t fit as well into an established archetype. What it does have are a bunch of cool tricks, which sometimes work best at the Regional level with its greater focus on single game matches. Unlike most of the players who used Charizard at the World Championships, Chase used Charizard as his only Mega. He did give it a bunch of teammates to help it get safe turns to do damage. Raichu and Sableye standout as its support, with Raichu offering Fake Out and Lightningrod support and Sableye providing some Prankster support options. Raichu and Sableye also play nicely with Azumarill, perhaps the Pokémon that best uses free turns in VGC 2014. The support duo can create plenty of opportunities for Azumarill to get those free turns. Mamoswine also offers one of the classic Charizard combinations, being probably the second most common Charizard sweeper buddy after Garchomp.

2015 Autumn Regionals Predictions

Brief this week with only one Regional, but the same rules as usual apply!

The section for each Regional will feature some background information on the Regional. I’ll then list the players who seem most likely to cut based on previous performance and the events’ most interesting story lines before the event (The Story). The section on each Regional will finish up with the player most likely to win (The Smart Money is on…). I will attempt to mention players who had deep runs in the previous couple of groups of tournaments, players who cut the event in question the previous year, and then move on from there if things are looking a little desolate.

It must be noted before I go any further: Regionals are the most wide open of all VGC events. Regionals are the tier of event where players become established with their performances. I can basically guarantee that in every Regional there will be at least two or three players in each top cut that few would have considered a favorite before the event. That’s a good thing — new faces near the top means the game is growing and more players are playing at a high level. We saw more of this with XY than we had in the history of VGC. However, I can’t write about people we don’t know yet, so don’t take there being no further mentions of anyone but established players as an expectation that big names are going to sweep all of the top cut slots. They won’t.

Texas Regional

Difficulty Rating

cameruptcameruptcameruptcameruptcamerupt / 5

(Mega Camerupt/Team Magma Hype out of five)

Location: Houston Marriott South at Hobby Airport, 9100 Gulf Fry., Houston, Texas 77017

Last Year’s Results

  1. Omari Travis (BadIntent)
  2. DeVon Ingram (dingram)
  3. Tiffany Stanley (Shiloh)
  4. Blake Hopper (Bopper)
  5. Yaakov Kohr
  6. Evan Bates (Veteran Padgett)
  7. Zach Droegkamp (Zach)
  8. Ryan Brooker (lolfailsnail)

The Story

Texas tends to be one of the country’s smaller Regionals, with only 99 players competing in Masters last year. It also tends to be dominated largely by people who are Team Magma aficionados, which seems appropriate given the impending Ruby/Sapphire remakes. I don’t expect large changes in regard to either of those qualities, though the event may be appreciably bigger this year now that it is on its own weekend. Given that there are at least about twenty pretty intimidating players planning to enter the fray this weekend, I would expect we’ll see a larger, more challenging event than last year. With so many good players this could be an especially tough run for the players who end up with big finishes, as there will be a lot of names players are hoping to avoid in a smaller, tighter field. Expect some spotlight matches every round!

There seem to be a lot of Regionals this season where big chunks of the previous year’s top cut won’t be attending to try to repeat their performance, and this event is no exception. As always, I am unsure if Omari Travis will be attending this time, and if he does he’ll be one of the favorites even after a disappointing three-loss performance last week in Phoenix. Gone for sure are runner-up DeVon Ingram and annual Regionals monster Zach Droegkamp, which will open up some spots in the top cut for some new, old faces.

Texas will actually probably be the event with the second most competitors from the 2014 World Championships in the Autumn Regionals season. On top of potentially Omari, both of last year’s Texas semifinalists, Tiffany Stanley and Blake Hopper, made it to Worlds. Blake ended up having to go through LCQ in spite of a strong Regionals season, but he made it count and wound up in 11th place. Surprisingly, Blake actually won’t be the highest finisher from last year’s Worlds competing at this event, as semifinalist Collin Heier (TheBattleRoom) will be in attendance. Other than his Worlds finish, Collin is perhaps best remembered for absolutely crushing the last two weeks of the last group of Regionals. He won in Madison and made it to the semifinals of the Kansas City Regional, which was won by 2013 Texas Regional Champion Ben Irons (Benji), who will also be in attendance.

Texas will have a US Nationals semifinalist to go along with its Worlds semifinalist, as Logan Castro (Yellowbox) will be competing as well. Logan was one of those players who needed an insane Nationals finish to make it to Worlds after a weaker Regionals season last year, but he nailed it! He’ll be looking for a big finish at Regionals to make things a little easier this year. The final player from last year’s Worlds is none other than Aaron “Aaron ‘CT Cybertron’ Zheng” Zheng, who is both a favorite from having won the last two tournaments he has participated in as well as perhaps highly disadvantaged by having posted his team on YouTube. It’ll be interesting to see if he comes out with something new here, considering… We could see the start of a new rivalry between him and Benji, who once also told me he was Aaron “CT Cybertron” Zheng.

Omari (presence pending), Logan, Tiffany, Collin, Aaron, and Blake stand out as big threats after making Worlds last year. There are two other players from the top 25 of Championship Points last year I believe are attending. One is Stephen Morioka (Stephen), who is another big threat to take this event as one of the most consistent players throughout the last two seasons. The other is Jonathan Rankin (JRank), who had an impressive 10th place run at last year’s Nationals. Jonathan lived the opposite side of Logan’s story, as he ended up on the wrong side of the 4-2 bubble of Nationals Day 2 and just missed Worlds instead of just making it because of it. He’ll be looking to build some points here to avoid that scenario this year. I think if most people had to guess the player who had the next most CP in 2014 participating in this event, they’d guess Benji, especially since I already mentioned he won a Regional each of the last two years. That’s actually incorrect — it was Evan Bates, who finished 26th overall in CP last year. He made it to the quarterfinals of last year’s Texas Regional and finished 13th at US Nationals, the third best finish among players at this event.

There are a few other names to keep an eye on. Ryan Brooker spends most of his time writing bad fan fiction now, but made it to the round of eight last year. Trista Medine (ryuzaki) and Patrick Donegan (Pd0nZ) joined Aaron in the top cut of Philadelphia last week. Chalkey Horenstein (Chalkey) had a solid 7-2 run in Philadelphia even though he missed the cut, and did make the cut of the last Regional he played in last season. Sam Haarsma (DrFidget) had a rough year in 2014 after being near the top of the Championship Points standings for almost all of 2013. Both have the Team Magma thing going for them, which seems to help in this event. Nico Villalobos (Calm Lava) is good for a strong Regionals finish or two a year, and this could be the one since lava is kind of Magma-themed. Austin Bastida-Ramos (Syncie) is another one of those players who flies under the radar like Evan Bates, but he made it to the semifinals of Kansas City last year and followed it up with a 28th place finish at US Nationals. Aaron Grubbs (LPFan) top cut in Kansas City last year and ended up just inside the top 50 of 2014 CP. Joseph Brummet (lucariojr) made the top cut of St. Charles last year, joining a bunch of the other players mentioned above like Blake, Collin, Jonathan, and Tiffany. Edward Fan (iss) at least made the cut of APEX last year, but isn’t it about time he got it done in a Premier event?

The Smart Money is on…: I’m going with Benji. I predicted him last year, but for some reason he wasn’t able to fight for the team even though he was there… I’ll just use that prediction this year instead. What could go wrong? He’s good for a Regionals win every year, so it’s time to start throwing darts until I catch it!

I was actually really shocked he missed Worlds last year. Really good player, and one of the chosen few in Pokémon with an equally great attitude toward the game and the many strange things that can happen in it. It’s hard to bet against him, and I expect to see him in Worlds this year regardless of what happens in Texas.

Attending this event? Join your fellow competitors in discussion on our forum.


About the Author

started playing VGC in 2011. He finished 17th at US Nationals, then lost in the final round of 2011 Worlds LCQ. He finished 10th in the 2012 World Championships and qualified for Worlds again in 2013 after going into US Nationals second in CP. Instead of playing, he commentated at US Nationals and the World Championships in 2013 and 2014. Follow him on Twitter @NBNostrom!



11 Responses to VGC 2015 North American Autumn Regionals Preview Part 2

  1. Bopper says:

    Glad I don’t have the curse of smart money this time. Going to be a great regional, can’t wait!

  2. Scott says:

    Hey man, the average finish was like 3rd among people I cursed last week!
     
     
     
    I’m losing my touch…

  3. I’m still the best mawile player IN THE WORLD!!

  4. Queejibo says:

    I suspected that Kangaskhan would see a pretty significant drop in usage and a Mawile would become more common, but I did not expect it to be this much. I think Mawile’s usage is actually higher than Kangaskhan’s at any event in the 2014 season.

  5. brokestupidlonely says:

    I always hope to see Syncie do well at events after he beat me at Kansas City last year. It’s nice to see a newcomer posting good results.

  6. Gentlefish says:

    No love for the California regional? :c

  7. break says:

    If you are in this cover picture…and your name is Omari Travis (BadIntent)…you will place in the top 8 and have enough CP to get a worlds 2015 invite.

    * which maybe held in Nashville, Tennessee – USA, next summer *

    So if you are attending these upcoming regionals…and you noticed you are paired up with Omari Travis (BadIntent)…don’t look at it as an auto-loss…look at it as a learning experience.

  8. pookar says:

    If you are in this cover picture…and your name is Omari Travis (BadIntent)…you will place in the top 8 and have enough CP to get a worlds 2015 invite.

    * which maybe held in Nashville, Tennessee – USA, next summer *

    So if you are attending these upcoming regionals…and you noticed you are paired up with Omari Travis (BadIntent)…don’t look at it as an auto-loss…look at it as a learning experience.

     
    Mr. break, what you’ve just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.

  9. okay, a simple “wrong” would’ve done just fine, but uh…

  10. Benji says:

    I am hoping to actually play in the event this year!

  11. seasicknesss says:

    Mr. break, what you’ve just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.

    O’doyle RULES!

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