VGC 2015 North American Autumn Regionals Preview Part 3
The road has been long and the journey arduous and full of kangaroos, but the last major events of the VGC 2014 format are finally upon us. Who will the final two players be to get that sick burst of 120 CP for winning? What Pokémon will win the last major XY event? Will Mawile or Charizard win more Autumn Regionals? What happened to Kangaskhan? What teams should you copy for your remaining Premier Challenges? Your questions possibly answered this weekend!
Prizes
Win SO MUCH Championship Points, which may or may not help you qualify for the 2015 Pokémon World Championships in location unknown. Also, trading cards and a 3DSXL!
1st Place
- A Pokémon VG Regional Championships 1st Place award
- A Nintendo 3DSXL system
- A combination of 72 booster packs from current Pokémon TCG expansions
- 120 Championship Points
2nd Place
- A Pokémon VG Regional Championships 2nd Place award
- A combination of 72 booster packs from current Pokémon TCG expansions
- 100 Championship Points
3rd and 4th Place
- A Pokémon VG Regional Championships 3rd or 4th Place award
- A combination of 36 booster packs from current Pokémon TCG expansions
- 80 Championship Points
5th Place through 8th Place
- A combination of 18 booster packs from current Pokémon TCG expansions
- 60 Championship Points
9th Place through 16th Place
- A combination of 9 booster packs from current Pokémon TCG expansions
- 40 Championship Points
17th Place through 32nd Place
- 30 Championship Points (if division attendance is 64 or greater)
33rd Place through 64th Place
- 20 Championship Points (if division attendance is 128 or greater)
65th Place through 128th Place
- 10 Championship Points (if division attendance is 256 or greater)
The Metagame
Listed below are the usage statistics for the top cut of the Masters Autumn Regionals so far. Philadelphia had 16 teams in its top cut, while Texas and Arizona had eight each.
| Pokémon | Total Use | Texas | Philly + Arizona | % of Teams | Change |
| Mawile | 17 | 5 | 12 | 53.13% | +3.13% |
| Garchomp | 14 | 3 | 11 | 43.75% | -2.08% |
| Ludicolo | 12 | 5 | 7 | 37.50% | +8.33% |
| Talonflame | 11 | 3 | 8 | 34.38% | +1.05% |
| Zapdos | 10 | 2 | 8 | 31.25% | -2.08% |
| Heat Rotom | 9 | 2 | 7 | 28.13% | -1.04% |
| Hydreigon | 9 | 3 | 6 | 28.13% | +3.13% |
| Gardevoir | 8 | 2 | 6 | 25.00% | +0.00% |
| Salamence | 8 | 2 | 6 | 25.00% | +0.00% |
| Tyranitar | 8 | 2 | 6 | 25.00% | +0.00% |
| Aegislash | 7 | 2 | 5 | 21.88% | +1.05% |
| Charizard | 7 | 2 | 5 | 21.88% | +1.05% |
| Politoed | 7 | 3 | 4 | 21.88% | +5.21% |
| Gothitelle | 6 | 3 | 3 | 18.75% | +6.25% |
| Aerodactyl | 4 | 1 | 3 | 12.50% | +0.00% |
| Kangaskhan | 4 | 2 | 2 | 12.50% | +4.17% |
| Lucario | 4 | 1 | 3 | 12.50% | +0.00% |
| Wash Rotom | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9.38% | +1.05% |
| Amoonguss | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6.25% | -2.08% |
| Azumarill | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6.25% | -2.08% |
| Ferrothorn | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6.25% | -2.08% |
| Gengar | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6.25% | -2.08% |
| Greninja | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6.25% | -2.08% |
| Hariyama | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6.25% | +2.08% |
| Lapras | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6.25% | -2.08% |
| Machamp | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6.25% | +2.08% |
| Mamoswine | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6.25% | -2.08% |
| Manectric | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6.25% | -2.08% |
| Nidoking | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6.25% | -2.08% |
| Scrafty | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6.25% | -2.08% |
| Staraptor | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6.25% | -2.08% |
| Venusaur | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6.25% | -2.08% |
| Bisharp | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3.13% | -1.04% |
| Chandelure | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3.13% | -1.04% |
| Chesnaught | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3.13% | -1.04% |
| Conkeldurr | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3.13% | -1.04% |
| Gyarados | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3.13% | -1.04% |
| Haxorus | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3.13% | -1.04% |
| Kingdra | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3.13% | +3.13% |
| Liepard | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3.13% | -1.04% |
| Marowak | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3.13% | -1.04% |
| Mow Rotom | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3.13% | -1.04% |
| Noivern | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3.13% | -1.04% |
| Pachirisu | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3.13% | -1.04% |
| Raichu | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3.13% | -1.04% |
| Reuniclus | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3.13% | +3.13% |
| Sableye | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3.13% | -1.04% |
| Scizor | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3.13% | -1.04% |
Last week’s numbers are slightly different than what they were in last week’s preview because the missing team was added. Thanks as always to the people who helped contribute to the team data on the forum.
Some notes:
- Mawile and Ludicolo led the charge last week. They made five top cut appearances each in spite of there being only eight teams in the top cut.
- Mega Mawile and Mega Charizard Y are now tied with two Masters Autumn Regional wins each. All other Mega Pokémon have zero.
- Hydreigon climbed a little to a tie for sixth overall with three uses compared to most of the nearby Pokémon’s two.
- Politoed also saw three uses over last week’s eight teams, a pretty significant jump from four in the previous 24 teams. I played against Rain three times in seven rounds in Fort Wayne last year, so I wouldn’t be too surprised if Politoed keeps it up.
- Houston seemed very centered around two types of strategies. While each team had a variety of other strong Pokémon on them, most of the teams near the top focused on one of two duos that worked particularly well together, but could also function apart.
- One was Rain: three of the eight players in the top cut used Politoed. Two paired it with Ludicolo, while one was more of a throwback with Kingdra.
- The other common duo was Gothitelle + Mawile, which was also used by three players.
Last Week’s Finalists
Texas Champion Cedric Bernier (Talon)’s Team
Cedric showed a great understanding of the most important threats to check in the current metagame with his team. Players are very focused on Mawile, Charizard, and to a lesser extent Rain and Kangaskhan right now, and he had great answers for all of them. He had Charizard and two Intimidates to play into Mawile. He had Tyranitar, Garchomp, and Salamence to play into Charizard. Two Intimidates, one of which from counter Mawile gave him a good matchup with Kangaskhan, and he even had Ludicolo and Tyranitar to play into Rain. Cedric’s team did a great job of making it so that the star Pokémon on his opponents’ teams couldn’t perform like the key Pokémon they were. He was able to shut down enough opponents to earn a victory, and impressively, he actually won the late night Premier Challenge the night before the Regional as well!
Texas Runner-up Collin Heier (TheBattleRoom)’s Team
Collin’s team this time featured both of those commonly seen duos from the top cut. He had a Rain option with Politoed and Ludicolo, a trapping option that threatens his opponents with Trick Room with Mawile and Gothitelle, and even the core of his Worlds team with Mawile, Hydreigon, and Zapdos. He could throw a variety of options at his opponents with this team while still making sure all the Pokémon on his team were powerful Pokémon individually. The variety he had available with this team is a pretty serious advantage for a player as experienced as Colin is now.
2015 Autumn Regionals Predictions
The section for each Regional will feature some background information on the Regional. I’ll then list the players who seem most likely to cut based on previous performance and the events’ most interesting story lines before the event (The Story). The section on each Regional will finish up with the player most likely to win, but who will not win, because I cursed them (The Smart Money is on…). I will attempt to mention players who had deep runs in the previous couple of groups of tournaments, players who cut the event in question the previous year, and then move on from there if things are looking a little desolate.
It must be noted before I go any further: Regionals are the most wide open of all VGC events. Regionals are the tier of event where players become established with their performances. I can basically guarantee that in every Regional there will be at least two or three players in each top cut that few would have considered a favorite before the event. That’s a good thing — new faces near the top means the game is growing and more players are playing at a high level. We saw more of this with XY than we had in the history of VGC. However, I can’t write about people we don’t know yet, so don’t take there being no further mentions of anyone but established players as an expectation that big names are going to sweep all of the top cut slots. They won’t.
Northern California Regional
Difficulty Rating
/ 5
(Some fossils out of five)
Location: Santa Clara County Fairgrounds, 344 Tully Road, San Jose, CA, 95111
Last Year’s Results
- Thomas Mifflin (PBB)
- Omari Travis (BadIntent)
- Paul Hornak (makiri)
- Mike Suleski (OmegaDonut)
- April Hooge (Phenac)
- Shreyas Chanchi Radhakrishna (Shreyas)
- Matt Souerby (matt)
- Sam Johnson (RastaCharmander)
The Story
With neither semifinalist returning this year and a couple quarterfinalists gone with them, NorCal could turn out to be a very strange Regional this year! Both of the finalists, at least, will be returning. Thomas Mifflin was the surprise winner last year, winning out over Omari Travis in a finals that led to many players jokingly asking if the tournament was played in VGC 2010 format instead of 2013. The joke ended up being on those people, though, as Omari ended up being the top rated player going into US Nationals by a mile and Thomas managed to stay in the hunt for Worlds all year. The climb starts again for both players, with Omari looking to build on an 8th place finish last week and Thomas starting fresh this season. They’ll be joined by a couple of last year’s quarterfinalists in Shreyas Chanchi Radhakrishna and Sam Johnson, who both top cut for the first time last year and will be looking to repeat the performance this year.
Northern California is also the home of National Champion Alex Ogloza (Evan Falco), who will be looking to put some meaningful points on the board after a weak start to his Regionals season. Having won a National Championship in this format he is one of the event’s big favorites, though he’ll likely need to show some variety here since the metagame has shifted against the Rain he used at Nationals and Worlds. His buddy Alex Stempe (Stempe) will be starting his season out this weekend as well. He won a Regional last year during the first batch of XY events, so he is similarly a favorite here. Speaking of Regional winners, Chase Lybbert (I Am a Rookie) won in Arizona two weeks ago and will be looking to add on to that finish and start this season with a big burst of CP. We’ve seen a couple players get huge early leads they never really relinquished over the past couple of years, and if Chase does well here he could be part of this year’s group.
Ryan Tan (Tan) was on the edge of Worlds last year before getting Bopped in the last round of LCQ. When Rampardos and that other bad one that is its counterpart still roamed the earth, Huy Ha (Huy), Duy Ha (Duy), and Alan Schambers (Metabou) were players you expected to see near the top of every Californian tournament, and last year lots of players came back from the dead here. Alec Wild (Pokemaster649) ended up with a solid 6th place finish in California’s first XY Regional. Anthony Jimenez (DarkAssassin) finished 10th in that tournament and is the reigning Nugget Bridge Major champion, while Riley Factura (gengarboi) finished in 20th. Other players to look out for include William Hall (Biosci), Cassie Fordyce (Cassie), and Alejandro Jimenez (Legacy).
The Smart Money is on…: Choosing a liberal spin of the word smart…
<~Huy> scott put da money on me
<~Huy> i guarantee it
<~Huy> theres no symphony
PREDICTING A GUY WHO DROPPED FROM LCQ TO LISTEN TO SOME MUSIC.
Attending this event? Join your fellow competitors in discussion on our forum.
Indiana Regional
Difficulty Rating
/ 5
(Three Pokémon that kinda look like they belong in the part of Fort Wayne the event used to be at if you look at it right out of five)
Location: Grand Wayne Center, 120 West Jefferson Boulevard, Fort Wayne, Indiana 46802
Last Year’s Results
- Wesley Morioka (Wesley)
- Kamaal Harris (FonicFrog)
- Andrew Burley (Andykins)
- Tyler Hagan (Tyler)
- David Mancuso (Mancuso)
- Luke Swenson (theamericandream38)
- Adib Alam (honchkro13)
- Scott Glaza (Scott)
The Story
The Regional in Indiana will similarly to California see a few guaranteed changes in its top cut. Several players from top cut last year will presumably be missing the event, with Tyler seeming to have given up on Pokémon, Adib having conveniently clicked the not attending button on the forum, and Luke out of region. The event gets even more volatile when you consider Kamaal’s struggles with the VGC 2014 format and that I am a retired old man with only three Pokémon left.
I’m not especially certain if he’s attending this year, but last year Wesley Morioka won the event. The beginning of last year’s season saw the triumphant return of a lot of VGC 2010 players, so it seemed only right for the 2010 National Champion to take this Regional home. He ended up riding it to a solid year, where he finished 20th overall in North America with 304 CP and just barely missed making Worlds due to finishing 129th at US Nationals when he needed to finish 128th or better. Assuming he’s playing, he’ll be a favorite once again in spite of a disappointing finish to his 2014 season. Andrew Burley was last year’s sole 7-0. He ended up with a 3rd place finish that he replicated in Madison. He also top cut in Philadelphia two weeks ago, showing that once again he should be one of the bigger threats in a midwestern Regional.
David Mancuso finished fifth at this event last year, but improved on that finish with a top four run two weeks ago in the strongest field of this Regional cycle in Philadelphia. It was a bit of a surprise to see him top cut last year, but this year he should be one of the favorites. Finally from last year’s top cut, Kamaal Harris has had a really tough run in an VGC 2014 metagame that is a little quick for his taste, but he’s been red hot in NPA and might have turned things around at just the right time to get off to a strong start in the new season. While not part of last year’s top cut, Zach Droegkamp (Zach) was the winner of this event in 2013. He is one of those players who seems to be good for at least a Regional a year, and he’s taken this one before. He’s also in fourth place overall in CP right now in spite of having not played in any Regionals yet because he has about a billion points from Premier Challenges, and a decent run could easily vault him into second.
Perhaps the most interesting stories of the tournament are some players who did not top cut last year. Two players from last year’s World Championships played but did not top cut the event. Collin Heier (TheBattleRoom) finished 10th last year in Fort Wayne, but after 1st, 2nd, and a top four finish in his last 3 Regionals on top of a top 4 run at the World Championships, he looks much stronger coming in this year than he did last year. Also just missing the cut last year was Ashton Cox (linkyoshimario) at 12th. He had a tough run last year playing two players from the top cut in the last two rounds. He’ll either need a stronger performance or a little better luck with the pairings this time around as he tries to shrug off his first shaky performance in a long time two weeks ago in Philadelphia. While Ashton just missed the top cut of Nationals last year, Jon Hu (JHufself) is the only player in this tournament who made it to the bracket stage of that tournament. He ended up finishing the top four of the country the last time we were in Indiana. His run at Worlds wasn’t as strong as he might have hoped, but after coming so close to a National title he’s certainly shown the world he’s a player to respect. The final player coming from last year’s World Championships is Toler Webb (Dim). He’ll similarly be looking for a rebound performance after some disappointing runs toward the end of last season.
A number of other players will be attending who have put up some solid performances recently. Alec Rubin (amr97) top cut Nationals last year, finishing in an impressive 19th place. Andy Himes (Amarillo) was the undefeated player from Day 1 at last year’s Nationals. There are three more players participating who top cut in Pennsylvania two weeks ago. Pat Ball (pball0010) finished sixth, Patrick Donegon (Pd0nZ) finished 11th, and Jeremy Rodrigues (Serapis) finished 16th. Jake Muller (majorbowman) finished just below top cut with 7-2 finish. Nathan Powell (illuminatimon) and Jonathan McMillan (MrEobo) top cut in the last midwestern Regional in Wisconsin. In the Regional before that, Keegan Beljanski (Darkeness) was the top player coming out of Swiss with an undefeated* record.
The Smart Money is on…: While I typically don’t like to predict people to make the finals two weeks in a row, the smart money is pretty obviously on Collin Heier here. He’s had an almost unmatched streak of Regionals recently with 290 CP from his last three outings. The only other player I can remember doing as well in three consecutive Regionals is fellow participant Zach Droegkamp… should be interesting if they face one another!
Attending this event? Join your fellow competitors in discussion on our forum.
Photo Credit: Wesley M.
About the Author
Scott started playing VGC in 2011. He finished 17th at US Nationals, then lost in the final round of 2011 Worlds LCQ. He finished 10th in the 2012 World Championships and qualified for Worlds again in 2013 after going into US Nationals second in CP. Instead of playing, he commentated at US Nationals and the World Championships in 2013 and 2014. Follow him on Twitter @NBNostrom!
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12 Responses to VGC 2015 North American Autumn Regionals Preview Part 3
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I guess my season won’t start until next year…
Scott sadly isn’t on Professor Oak’s level yet.
Would’ve loved to attend another event this weekend, I’ll just have to wait till next format.
Scott just doesn’t approve of Collin trying with an invite and graced him with the smart money curse. I see you Scott. I see you. If I had some sort of shlong related gif I would post it here.
Mawile, Garchomp and Gardevoir I’m good with, but everything else at the top of the useage chart is making me cringe in so many ways… and I don’t have time to alter my team so that it actually counters things. xD
I wish I was lucky enough to make the top cut. I had a team similar to Cedric’s, but I never thought of Salamence and Mawile on the same team. That, and wasn’t using more than one mega Pokemon dangerous?
I played in a premier challenge in Vancouver today…
How did I end up having to face, Chinese Dood, MrScaryMuffin, starmetroid, Arti, Phenac, and a Japanese exchange student who has joined the UVic Pokemon Club all in one tourney? Between 5 swiss rounds and 2 top cut matches, everyone I faced was within my circle of friends in BC except for my T8 opponent. Has something like this happened to other people at PCs/Regionals?
At the Brooklyn PC I attended, I basically played everyone I knew at the tournament lol
Round 1: Angel
Round 2: Chuppa
Round 3: Simon
Round 4: Jamesspeed1
Round 5: Rukario
Round 6: Pdonz
Top 8: Simon
Top 4: Rukario
Finals :Jamesspeed1
This is probably a bad time to mention I played Gastrodon and Ariados in the PC I won
Ariados is KalosDex at least, lol
Gastrodon is p awesome tho