Published on July 1st, 2015 | by kingofmars
18Championship Point Wrap Up: A 2015 US Nationals Preview
Editor’s Note: With the distribution of Championship Points this season, players have been playing year-round to get themselves in a favourable as possible position going into the United States National Championships. The top 40 players in the US & Canada Rating Zone will earn an invitation to the 2015 Pokémon World Championships with the top 8 receiving direct entry into the second day of the competition along with free travel and accmodations. With only one chance at the heavy amount of points granted by the National Championships for most players and no second chances if the weekend is unsuccessful, competitors are putting their all into the tournament.
I’m Gavin Michaels, otherwise known as kingofmars, and when I haven’t been going 6-2 at Regionals I’ve been keeping track of everyone’s Championship Points on a spreadsheet designed to be and easier to browse and more in-depth version of what the official Pokémon website provides.
Today I’m going to break down what everyone in the United States, Canada, and occasionally South Africa needs in order to secure their Day 1 Worlds invite. While important, I won’t be able to accurately predict what the bar for Top 8 in CP– good for a paid trip and a Day 2 invite– will be because the range is simply too massive. What I will say is, if you do exceptionally well at Nationals or if your name rhymes with Gulf Lick you might be in contention.
My analysis is going to be largely based on the program I designed with DeVon (dingram). This program assumes players with already high finishes will do better at Nationals, on average, than a person with poor results, but it also takes into consideration that a person with poor results going into Nationals can still end up doing well or even winning. Further breakdown of that can be found in this forum thread but the important takeaways are that the average and median cutoff is at 368 CP, primarily due to the large number of people that are either at 368 currently or have a Nationals finish that would put them at 368. The range is also pretty cleanly between 360 and 380, which is where 83% of the simulations fell into, with most of the other results occurring on the lower end of the spectrum. Please be aware that the cutoffs are rather arbitrary for where I start and end the groups. The bottom player in a group is generally much less safe than the top player in the group. Before we start, let’s take a look at the Championship Points payout for the National Championships:
Placement | Championship Points |
1 | 600 |
2 | 500 |
3–4 | 400 |
5–8 | 300 |
9–16 | 200 |
17–32 | 150 |
33–64 | 100 |
65–128 | 50 |
Without further ado, let’s start it off with the people who aren’t even reading this article: the players that have their invites already locked.
Group A: Locked for Worlds | 524 (Wolfe Glick) – 400 (Conan Thompson) + Nikolai Zelinski and Jeudy Azzarelli.
- Wolfe Glick (Wolfey)
- David Mancuso (Mancuso)
- Collin Heier (TheBattleRoom)
- Max Douglas (starmetroid)
- Ashton Cox (linkyoshimario)
- Aaron Zheng (Cybertron)
- Conan Thompson (Conan)
- Nikolai Zielinski (Nikolai)
- Jeudy Azzarelli (SoulSur)
Group B: The group that might have made Worlds already but they’re cutting it close | 380 (Riley Factura) – 368 (James Ball).
- Riley Factura (gengarboi)
- Chase Lybbert (I Am A Rookie)
- Gabby Snyder (JTK)
- Demitrios Kaguras (Kingdjk)
- Angel Miranda (CT MikotoMisaka)
- Alberto Lara (Sweeper)
- James Ball (pball0010)
Group C: Hopefully everyone drops! | 342 (Paul Chua) – 332 (Alec Rubin).
- Paul Chua (pwny person)
- Zach Droegkamp (Braverius)
- Andrew Burley (Andykins)
- Colten Lybbert (Rookie Slayer MLG)
- Aaron Traylor (Unreality)
- Kyle Timbrook (TM Ruby)
- Alec Rubin (amr97)
Group D: People who might be really nervous Friday night | 330 (Justin Burns) – 313 (Kamaal Harris)
- Justin Burns (Spurrific)
- Michael Fladung (Primitive)
- Ben Hickey (darkpenguin67)
- Matthew Greaves (picklesword)
- Alejandro Jimenez (Legacy)
- Andy Himes (Amarillo)
- Cedric Bernier (Talon)
- William Hall (Biosci)
- Gavin Michaels (kingofmars)
- Len Deuel (Alaka)
- Thomas McCready (Tmac)
- Kamaal Harris (Kamaal)
Group E: Day 2 is good enough | 306 (Cameron Swan) – 281 (Priciliano Garcia)
- Cameron Swan (Drizzleboy)
- James Baek (Jamesspeed1)
- Rushan Shekar (Firestorm)
- Jake Muller (majorbowman)
- Chris Stotts (MasterFisk)
- Kamran Jahadi (Kamz)
- Blake Hopper (Bopper)
- Kimo Nishamura (TFC)
- Hayden McTavish (enigne)
- Bridger Snow (squirtwo)
- Michael Shaw
- Priciliano Garcia (Pirate Lion Inferno)
Group F: Top Cut might be stressful | 280 (Amelia Zoldy) – 268 (Sean Timmons)
- Amelia Zoldy (VioletPumpkin)
- Greg Johnson (bgt)
- Matthew Terriberry (crazysnorlax)
- Danny Hemchand (Jabberwocky)
- Whitney Johnson (brokestupidlonely)
- David Kubiak (MangoPickle)
- Johnathan Neville (TM Gold)
- Mario Serrano (Mario C)
- Nicholas Borghi (LightCore)
- Jonathan McMillan (MrEobo)
- Anthony Jimenez (DarkAssassin)
- Sean Timmons
Group G: Time to Top Thirty Two | 266 (Mark Hanson) – 232 (Cameron Kicak)
- Mark Hanson (Crawdaunt)
- Matt Coyle (PrettyLittleLiar)
- Ben Irons (BenjiTheGreat)
- Aaron Liebersbach (Arch)
- Tyson Gernack (Firefly)
- William Collins (Wiretap)
- Tracy McLaughlin (Mack)
- Ryan Brooker (lolfailsnail)
- Steven Burton (PikaPastor)
- Hanna Coder
- Samuel Haarsma (DrFidget)
- Nico Villalobos (Calm Lava)
- Adit Selvaraj (LithiumAcid)
- Cody Bernheisel (CodeUmbreon)
- Trista Medine (ryuzaki)
- Evan Deligiannis (nave)
- Chance Alexander (Paragon)
- Matthew Peroutka
- Sam Johnson (RastaCharmander)
- John Steffen (Legend X)
- Michael Groshans (Mikewando)
- Alicia Martinez (Leeshe)
- Karl Concepcion
- Kyle Epperson
- Luis Salas (RaveRemix)
- Caleb Ryor (BlitznBurst)
- Lee Camacho (raindanceking)
- Randy Kwa (R Inanimate)
- Eric Graham (ChaosElementX)
- Stephen Brown III (Pyromaniac720)
- Jonathan Rankin (JRank)
- Jeremy Rodrigues (Serapis)
- Chuppa Cross (Chuppa)
- Cameron Kicak (Stormfront)
Group H: Banking on Resistance | 229 (Aaron Grubbs) – 220 (Stephen Morioka)
- Aaron Grubbs (LPFan)
- Ed Glover (min)
- Dane Zieman (agentorangejulius)
- Luis Canseco (Chaivon)
- Jason Wynja (Arti)
- Dorian Nousias (crazyblissey)
- Bjorn (Meow) Johnson
- Clayton Lusk (Zubat)
- Omari Travis (BadIntent)
- Kaston Murrela (Chronos)
- Stephen Morioka (Stephen)
Group I: Top 16 or Bust | 217 (Tiffany Stanley) – 180 (Erik Holmstrom)
- Tiffany Stanley (Shiloh)
- Raphael Bagara (rapha)
- Shadowkiller499
- Cash Koskta (Cash Koskta)
- Evan Bates (Veteran Padgett)
- Emilio Estrada
- Matt Swanson (Swanner)
- Toler Webb (Dimsun)
- JT Hunsaker (jtwashere)
- Daniel Stein (BlazikenBurner)
- Michael Hall
- Huy Ha (Huy)
- Jacobo Salazar
- Kevin Beach (RandomVGC)
- Zach Meadway (Meadwag)
- Zach Carlson (ProfShroomish)
- Tommy Cooleen (TMan)
- Keegan Beljanski (Darkeness)
- Junghum Yeon (ANGDE)
- Kyle Ayala (Magunda)
- Nathan Brammar Powell (illuminatimon)
- Nick Titan
- Zach Costello (shadowz900)
- Andres Morales
- Zach Dalton
- Ashin Mehta (SweetKarma)
- Jacob Legler
- Patrick Donegan (Pd0nZ)
- Daniel Cardenas (KermittheFrog14)
- Justin Carris (Azazel)
- Grant Weldon (Velocity)
- Danish Ali (Danish555)
- Jake Magier
- Christopher Beckstrom (The Fish King)
- Wesley Warthe-Anderson
- Nofil Nadeem (Oryx)
- Michael Lanzano (Jivetime)
- Jackson Hambrick (Hambrick)
- Logan Castro (Yellowbox)
- Erik Holmstrom (Cyrus)
Group J: Oh god I might have to actually cut Nats | 179 (Kevin Reed) – 168 (Kayhon Tahmaseb)
As the name suggests, in order to get an invite these players might need to Top 8 Nats to make worlds. There’s a chance that they can make it in with Top 16, but a Top 8 finish locks their invite. Luckily for them, they don’t have to worry about securing their Worlds invite if they cut and can just focus on winning the title.
Group K: Oh god I NEED to top cut Nats | 166 (Colin Schoenwolf) – 82 (Matthew Crews)
The players in this group must undergo the daunting task of actually top cutting Nationals for their invite. From here on out, Nationals is a do or die event, which might play to the strength of the numerous veteran players in this group. Like the previous group, however, at least if they cut they can just focus on taking the title.
Group L: The Simon Yip Memorial Group | 80 (Manoj Sunny) – 68 (Brennen Dinofli)
As the name suggests, these players might walk away from their Top 8 set and realize that they missed a worlds invite. This is probably the least fun tier to be in, so let’s hope for the sanity of all these players that they can avoid this.
Group M: The Rest | 66 (Alex Valente) – 1 (Whoever Top 128s an International Challenge)
This group needs to Top 4 Nats in order to get their Worlds invite. While that does sound like an insanely hard goal to reach, last year’s results should prove that players in this group can absolutely get a Top 4 finish.
18 Responses to Championship Point Wrap Up: A 2015 US Nationals Preview
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So my name isn’t Kevin, so that’s sorta awkward for y’all.
Top 64… I can do that. Thanks for this 😀
Man I never get mentioned in these things. But I’m in group G.
best of luck friends.
Thanks for putting this together! Looks like I’m in group G (Karl Concepcion). Fairly uphill, but doable!
Oh man that stings… haha. I was at 1694 in the last IC with 2 games left and was considering just leaving it there, but figured there was no point since I’d need Top 32 Nats anyways. Dropped my last two (Squirtwo!!! *fist shake* ). While that’s still true, the median bracket predicts 368 to make a Worlds invite? I’d much rather be Group F than G, and stopping might’ve done it for me >.>
Thanks for the write-up!
GROUP K HYPE
(thanks for article)
Kill me.
Could we do this for the senior division.
Nathan (illuminatimon) Do it! For us!!!!!
no because there is no senior cp sheet and we all know what we need
Oh, can’t you just is the one at pokemon.com?
Wooo group L hype! 72 CP lol…
I like the South Africa mention 🙂 very subtle
I love this article, good work!!!
LOL, I book end group K, and I won’t attend Nationals. Best of luck y’all.
Not sure these are final, but pokemon.com now has “leaderboards” updated through Nationals (but maybe not the IC) that list those “qualified” for Worlds. If this is final, the CP cutoffs turned out to be:
394 Masters
382 Seniors
444 Juniors
http://www.pokemon.com/us/play-pokemon/leaderboards/championships/
368pts bubbled at 41st.
It’s a good thing I got CP!