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Published on July 2nd, 2013 | by Scott

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2013 US National Championships Preview

As most of our readers are probably aware from their own plans or from our Seniors division preview yesterday, July 6th-7th marks the dates of United States Video Game Championships, with pre-registration occurring on Friday between 4:00 and 6:00 PM EDT outside of Exhibit Hall I and open registration starting bright and early at 8:00 AM EDT on Saturday. It would perhaps be more accurate to refer to the event as the North American Video Game Championships, as after a stellar turnout of like twelve people last season, Canadian Nationals has once again been merged with the United States this season for the video game. As such, US Nationals is the last opportunity for all Video Game players in the North American region to try to receive championship points to qualify for Worlds. As it stands right now, the twelve players with the most Championship Points will move on to play in Worlds, though players are optimistic TPCI may choose to expand the total number of invites a little after doubling the total European invites from 16 to 32 just before UK National tournament. The prizes (including CP) are bigger here than any other event in the North American circuit, and are listed below:

1st Place

• A Pokémon VG National Championships First-Place Trophy
• 400 Championship Points
• A Travel Award for the winner (and parent or legal guardian for players under 18) to the 2013 World Championships
• A Nintendo Wii U 32GB Deluxe Set
• Other great (and mysterious) Pokémon-themed merchandise!

2nd Place

• A Pokémon VG National Championships Second-Place Trophy
• 300 Championship Points (if division attendance is 4 or greater)
• A Travel Award for the winner (and parent or legal guardian for players under 18) to the 2013 World Championships
• A Nintendo 3DS XL
• Other great (and mysterious) Pokémon-themed merchandise!

3rd & 4th Place

• A Pokémon VG National Championships Semi-Finalist Trophy
• 250 Championship Points (if division attendance is 8 or greater)
• A Travel Award for the winner (and parent or legal guardian for players under 18) to the 2013 World Championships
• A Nintendo 3DS XL
• Other great (and mysterious) Pokémon-themed merchandise!

5th through 8th Place

• 110 Championship Points (if division attendance is 32 or greater)

9th through 12th Place

• 80 Championship Points (if division attendance is 64 or greater)

13th through 16th Place

• 60 Championship Points (if division attendance is 64 or greater)

17th through 32nd Place

• 40 Championship Points (if division attendance is 128 or greater)

33rd through 64th Place

• 30 Championship Points (if division attendance is 256 or greater)

It’s probably worth noting that while previous years awarded Worlds invitations directly at Nationals, there’s some threat of a player winning a trip without getting an invite to go along with it. 3rd and 4th place finishers, who receive hotels and paid trips to Worlds in dreary Vancouver(which is hopefully less blown up than it was when I was fighting space robots there on my XBox), “only” gain 250 Championship Points for their performance. While at the beginning of the year it looked like 250 CP would probably be reasonably safe for a Worlds invitation, that number could potentially cause some problems with the way things played out. While 250 CP right now would land a player in 8th place, six more players are currently between 240 and 248 points, making it almost guaranteed that a player who currently has 0 CP would not receive an invitation to Worlds by getting top 4 at US Nationals in spite of receiving the trip. 300 points for 2nd actually isn’t very safe either: hope everyone took Wi-Fi tournaments and Regionals seriously this season!

Keeping the changes made in 2012, US Nationals will again be a completely open event in 2013, with no requirements for entry based on either Regionals performance, like VGC had until 2011, or based on Play! Points, like in the TCG. While we never get exacting detail on the format of events prior to them occurring, there will presumably once again be eight or nine rounds of Swiss with players potentially separated into two flights. If at least 350 players attend the event, the 32 best records will make the top cut  like  last year, when the tournament was about one hundred players smaller. Otherwise, the top cut will revert to only 16 players, like it used to be back in the olden days when US Nationals was an invitation-only event and we had to EV train our Pokemon uphill both ways. If there are multiple flights, players with byes will probably be split reasonably evenly among them, unlike last year, though we haven’t heard much about that recently, so maybe not. There are 31 players with byes, though I believe only 30 of them are actually going to be attending. Each bye this year is only for one round instead of two, so having a bye is no longer the almost guaranteed top cut ticket it was before. The players with byes and how they earned them are listed below:

*Apparently not actually going to attend Nationals

It should be noted that unlike every other year of US Nationals, Swiss play is not the extent of Pokemon Video Game action on Saturday! Top cut play until the finals will occur immediately after Swiss with a 30 minute break, allowing for the finals of all divisions of VGC and TCG to happen consecutively on Sunday in place of the universally hated simultaneous format of 2011 and 2012. Perhaps more importantly for the hopefully exactly 318 players who do not make top cut, there will be more exciting Pokemon battles to be had in the Masters Single Cup, a single elimination tournament featuring 3v3 Singles battles that will be held shortly after Swiss ends. Sunday will feature another side tournament starting at 9:00 AM EDT featuring 4v4 triples battles. Both tournaments will award a Nintendo 3DS and a box of trading cards, and players down to 32nd place will also receive prizes (mostly smaller quantities of trading cards). Full details on the side events can be found on our news post here or on Pokemon’s official site here. I’d encourage everyone to play in these: having more opportunities to win prizes and play in a format that should be a little less serious than what we’re used to should be fun for everyone, so let’s try to show TPCI we appreciate them adding these events by participating in them.

The Main Event

Of course, it’s not side events most of us are attending Nationals for. Nationals is the event we’ve played all season to get ready for, and it’s also our last chance to try to make it to Worlds. US Nationals is also the second biggest Pokemon tournament of the season, so winning here carries a significant amount of prestige.

With the ruleset changing relatively little since last season by adding only a few new abilities, tutors, and formes in Pokemon Black 2 and White 2, the metagame is probably the most developed it has ever been going into this part of the season. It will be much more difficult for players to pull out tricks to surprise their competitors while still being strong enough to win given how explored the 2013 ruleset is, so it is reasonably likely the winner of the tournament will be a player that can use the pieces we all know are in the metagame the best, rather than someone who brings a bunch of innovative ideas.

For a while leading into Nationals our simulator ladders and internet tournaments were showing some really severe trends toward Pokemon like Breloom, Volcarona, Tornadus, Scizor, Landorus-T, and Mamoswine, but it seems like things calmed down a little bit during the last Wi-Fi tournament, with many players reverting back to more tested favorites. It will be interesting to see which direction most of the teams in Nationals will go, either favoring some of the recently popular offensive threats like the Pokemon mentioned before or leaning harder on more traditionally popular picks like Cresselia and Metagross. Sand also seems to have largely overtaken Rain as the weather of choice for players choosing to run a weather mode, which will lead to players needing different forms of disruption than they may have needed last year when Tyranitar was slightly less popular and rarely had his pet mole Excadrill with him.

While Pokemon is a game that rightfully gets a lot of criticism for having too much randomness, it is also a game that has given us the same World Champion for the last three years and two repeat Nationals champions over the last two years. I think one of the main reasons those champions were so consistently successful — Ray Rizzo (Ray), Wolfe Glick (Wolfey), and Aaron Zheng (Cybertron) — is that in the past, most of the higher end players were not nearly as good as the reputations that preceded them, while the eventual champions were. I think that trend is starting to change because of how much more players have to play to stay competitive in 2013’s circuit, with Regionals mattering more and the addition of Wi-Fi tournaments. While the rest of the field has improved with them, I think many of the players who have been successful throughout the season will defend their rankings and grab most of the top cut slots this year. Unlike last year, where at least half of the players who made top cut were… surprising, I would expect this season we won’t see more than a fifth of the top 32 being too out of the blue as long as pairings don’t force the tournament to develop differently. Readers will likely notice this seems to be a pretty commonly held opinion, and that most of the predictions aren’t too far off the deep end this year.

Rather than just give you my view on the metagame as I’ve done for some past events, I decided to get some outside opinions from players who know the North American field well from playing against it this year, as well as from commentating on it or writing about it in the case of most of our commentators. Each of the people with predictions listed below are established players plenty capable of top cutting on their own, while being connected to the community enough that they have a pretty insightful view on the players around them. With that said, none of us are infallible, and I hope no one takes being predicted or not being predicted seriously. We’re all doing our best to predict who we think is going to do well in a Pokemon tournament, not to pick who we want to save from a zombie apocalypse. Everyone was asked to touch on the players they thought were most likely to win trips, the players they expected to top cut, any particular metagame trends they wanted to talk about, and any dark horses they wanted to mention, while committing to a single winner. Each writer approached this a little differently, but hopefully you find all of our views entertaining and/or insightful.

Matt Sybeldon (bearsfan092)

If there’s one thing Nugget Bridge has accomplished in it’s year of existence, it’s the education of the playerbase.  Going into the 2013 U.S. Nationals, I think we can all agree that the field has never been this deep before.  Now that they’re all gathered in one place, you’d figure that we’re going to see some new faces cracking the top cut ranks.  Despite this, I believe this won’t be the case. With the thorough exploration of our metagame, I think it’s going to be difficult to unveil any new technology and take opponents by total surprise.  With innovation less of a factor, experience and the consistency it grants is likely going to decide who’s in the top cut.  As such, I’m going to take the conservative route, so those of you looking for outrageous dark horse picks should go elsewhere.

The theme of the U.S. Nationals is consistency, so I’m going with its poster boy Kamaal Harris (FonicFrog) to carry the day.  I honestly don’t remember a VGC period where Kamaal has been bad or even average.  Now that he’s got some serious traction at Regionals, I believe’s he’s ready to take the next step and win it all.  I’m predicting him to be in some good company with Stephen Morioka (Stephen) (the “dark horse” of this group), Benjamin Rothman (Nightblade7000), and Aaron Zheng (Cybertron) (keep it down fangirls).  With the exception of Stephen, all these players were pretty visible throughout the year, and I think it would be foolish to leave any of these four out of consideration.

As for the rest of the top cut, I think we’ll be seeing some old faces that have been pretty quiet this season in Danny Zollner (TTS)(Dan) and Harrison Saylor(Crow).  These two players are still very strong, but a relative lack of field experience might be enough to keep them from the top four.  Furthermore, I’m expecting Simon Yip (TDS) and Zach Droegkamp (Zach) to make an appearance.  TDS always ranks highly, so I’d think a top eight finish is a reasonable expectation.  Zach has less motivation CP-wise than anyone else right now, but I think his sheer skill should carry him to at least a top sixteen placing.  Other notable mentions go to Enosh Shachar (Human), Ben Irons (benjithegreat), and Trista Medine (ryuzaki) for top cut performances.

Aaron Zheng (Cybertron)

As 2011 and 2012 Masters Champion Wolfe Glick (Wolfey) already has an invitation to the 2013 World Championships in hand, we will finally usher in a new champion to the Masters division. With the creation of Nugget Bridge and Pokecheck’s VS Player being upgraded from last year, I personally feel that the average skill level of Americans have risen greatly. It is now a lot more difficult to keep teams and strategies private for very long, as they tend to get exposed immediately after one tournament. With that being said, my predictions in this article have one very common theme: they revolve around players who have already performed well at Nationals in the past.

For my safe picks, I’ve chosen players who have had an outstanding season this year, as well as players who have proved themselves time and time again at Nationals . The six players I expect to make a very deep run in the tournament are  Benjamin Rothman (Nightblade7000), Enosh Shachar (Human), Randy Kwa (R Inanimate), Kamaal Harris (FonicFrog), Matt Coyle (OneEyedWonderWeasel), and Zach Droegkamp (Zach). It is not a surprise to see that all six of these players have a Round 1 bye, greatly boosting their chances of making top cut if they finish with an X-2 record. All six players also made top cut at least two times at Regionals this season, an impressive accomplishment by itself. Excluding Ben, the rest of them have extensive experience with Nationals with Enosh finishing in the Top 8 in 2011 and 2012, Randy finishing in the Top 16 in 2011 and Top 8 in 2012 (Canada), Kamaal finishing in the Top 16 in 2009 and 2012, Matt making top cut 3 consecutive years (T16 2010, T8 2011, T32 2012), and Zach with a Top 8 finish in 2012. You’ll notice that one interesting trend between all these players is that none of them have actually ever made it into the Top 4 of the event. This year has been the year for many breakout wins (such as Ben and Randy’s regional wins), and I expect that trend to continue at Nationals, especially for Enosh and Matt, who have yet to win a Pokemon tournament. Unlike the rest of them, Ben has not had much Nationals experience, with a lackluster 5-3 performance at Nationals last year. However, he has improved immensely since then, and with the way he’s been playing this season, I would not be surprised to see him make it all the way to the very end of the tournament.

For my dark horse picks, I’ve chosen players who I believe have a very good shot at performing well in the tournament despite not receiving as much hype as the more popular players. My list consists of William Hall (Biosci), Luke Swenson(theamericandream38), Jason-Fisher Short(Fish), Danny Zollner (TTS)(Dan), Greyson Garren (Greysong), and Jerry Woods III(Sabaku). William’s been the local RNGer for the past two years but managed to snag a 2nd place finish at Winter California Regionals and has a bye locked in for Nationals. Luke is a former Regional champion and finished in the Top 8 at Nationals last year, and while he has not had a very strong track record this year, I believe he’s got the potential to make it to the end. Similar to Luke, Jason has not had a very strong season this year, and it’s easy to look over the fact that he qualified for Worlds in 2011 and finished in the Top 8 and Top 16 in his last two Nationals. Danny Zollner is probably the most consistent player at US Nationals in the past three years and is only really considered a dark horse because he has yet to play in an official tournament this season, but you can’t argue with his results from the past three years (T16, 2nd, 4th). Like Jason, Greyson qualified for Worlds in 2011 with a Top 8 finish at 2011 Nationals, and while his best performance this season was Top 8 at Regionals, he recently finished 1st in North America in the 2013 June International Challenge. He can easily carry that momentum into Nationals and match his finish back in 2011. Finally, Jerry Woods III rounds off my picks for dark horses. He won a Regional earlier this year in Georgia, coming on top of many top players (Dimsun, Scott, ryuzaki, etc.) to take the title. His regional victory also gives him a bye, immediately putting him on top of the rest of the field.

It’s interesting to note that there is a lot more pressure for certain players going into this event than others — while everyone plays to win, the CP leaders of the 2013 season can lock up a Worlds invitation with a Top 32/16 finish, while most of the dark horse picks need a Top 4/2 finish to get an invitation. I can personally say that my goal for the tournament is to just get a Worlds invite, while others have the goal of winning the entire tournament/placing in the Top 4. Regardless, I expect all the players I’ve mentioned in this article to bring their A-game and give it their best shot. My predicted winner is Ben Rothman – he is one of three players to Top 2 two separate Regionals this season, and having actually played him in 10,000 games this season, I really believe that his playstyle and team choice will be able to overcome the rest of the field.

Paul Hornak (makiri)

For a game filled with as much randomness as Pokemon, there is a surprising consistency in our winners. The same people continue to win or do well at nearly every tournament, and we can’t ignore this trend going into the biggest and last open North American tournament. Past winners of the United States Nationals have included players who won or placed well in the Regionals leading up to Nationals. My picks will be intentionally safe for a reason, these players have had success this year, and I see that trend continuing. With that said, let’s take a look at my picks to make a big impact on US Nationals.

Even though they are now a bit weaker, I still expect byes to play a major role in determining top cut berths. Not only do they give a free win, but the power of earned byes extends to tiebreakers, which helps determine the lower seeds of top cut. Of the players with byes, I expect Zach Droegkamp (Zach), Scott Glaza (Scott), Duy Ha (Duy), Randy Kwa (R Inanimate), Simon Yip (TDS) and Trista Medine (ryuzaki) to make deep runs in the tournament because of their remarkable consistency this season. Each player has top cut multiple times throughout the season and has years of experience to bank on. Not seeing these six in top cut would be a major shocker, but I expect them to get it done.

Players without byes that should have an impact include Greyson Garren (Greysong), Mike Suleski (OmegaDonut), and Alison McDonald (Fishy). Greyson is fresh off of a big Wi-Fi tournament win, Mike just top cut UK Nationals, and Alison is a former Regional winner whose skill level exceeds her low CP total. Tony Cheung (Chinese Dood) and Mike Papagianis (skarm), the former 1 and 2 of Canadian Nationals, are also players without byes that can be expected to make top cut. Tony has been consistent throughout the season and has the CP total to prove it while Mike is among one of the best players ever when he applies himself.

Just predicting who would make top cut is tough enough. Predicting who would top 4 and win is even tougher, but I’m going to do it anyway. Matt Coyle (OneEyedWonderWeasel), Stephen Morioka (Stephen), Kamaal Harris (FonicFrog), and Danny Zollner (TTS)(Dan) are my picks to win trips to Worlds this year. Barring Danny, each player has played extremely well this season, and each of them have a bye to bank on when it comes to making top cut. Once they make top cut, they all have the experience of playing in a major tournament and the pressure that comes along with it, so I don’t expect it to phase them. Danny is my dark horse pick due to his consistency at getting top 4 at Nationals, and while he doesn’t have any results this season, his recent run in the Wi-Fi tournament proves he is ready to get to the top again. Of those four I really expect Matt Coyle to finally secure that huge victory that has eluded him so far during his career and be crowned the 2013 US Nationals Champion.

Oliver Valenti (Smith)

When you talk about US Nationals Predictions, it’s pretty difficult not to mention Wolfe Glick (Wolfey) and Aaron Zheng (Cybertron), who, you know, haven’t not won this event since 4^th generation. Cybertron is a pretty easy pick fresh off a Spring Regionals win, but now that Sejun Park (which translates literally to “Our Enticingly Foreign Team Building Jesus”) and his team are the talk of the town, Cybertron will have to find a different Korean to emulate. Wolfe is in a similar predicament — while an undoubtedly solid player, he probably hasn’t inflicted damage upon an opposing Pokémon with an attacking move in around a year, so he might have to figure out how to switch gears back into trying-not-to-ruin-the-lives-of-all-of-my-opponents-mode. In terms of other successful people last year who I expect some measure of success from, current CP dictator and ivory tower theorymonner Zach Droegkamp (Zach) and transportationally-challenged Harrison Saylor (Crow) should certainly at least top cut. Trista Medine (ryuzaki), recently heartbroken after a short lived romance with Murkrow, will look to channel her RAAAAAAGE into some stellar Pokemoning, and Sixonesix Fonic Frog 616 Kamaal Harris (FonicFrog) is never a bad pick to win anything Pokémon related that isn’t hitting a Brightpowder Garchomp.

Of course, no Nationals prediction thread would be complete without me manning up and throwing some shoutouts at people that didn’t cut last year. Of all the requested buddy picks, the only one I can probably honor is Ben Irons (benjithegreat) — even without his beloved Moxie Scrafty, benjitheGREAT has had a pretty consistent track record at Regionals and only missed top cut last year due to some questionable sportsmanship from a last round opponent. William Hall (Biosci), who is probably beating sharks over the head with a paddle somewhere in the Pacific right about now, will also be in attendance, and with an average Regionals placing of 2^nd this year, who could count him out? Randy Kwa (R Inanimate) is my cheap pick for this paragraph since he cut Canadian nationals last year; if he doesn’t show up for registration too fashionably late or get his Togekiss critically hit more than once in Swiss, he should have a very successful tournament.

As for my predicted winner, Nightben7000 is my relatively uncontroversial selection. Since he and Cybertron have to play each other in the finals of every tournament they attend, sometimes more than once, all Ben has to do is make sure Cybertron makes the finals and coast on the majesty of Magnet Rise Excadrill. The only thing holding him back is that camp thingy or whatever it is he thought he was doing this weekend besides playing Pokémon.

Zach Droegkamp (Zach)

Top 16:  Ben Irons (benjithegreat), Tom Hull (TheGr8), Trista Medine (ryuzaki), Huy Ha (Huy), Kamaal Harris (FonicFrog), Keegan Beljanski (Darkeness), Collin Heier (TheBattleRoom), Joe Pulkowski (sandman)

Some really familiar faces and some relatively unknown ones on this list, but I think most of them are safe bets regardless. Trista, Huy, Kamaal, and Joe are no surprises on this list. Trista, Kamaal, and Joe have all finished in the top two at an event in the last year. While Huy hasn’t done the same, anyone who knows their Pokemon history and knows about his winning demeanor also knows that he’s always primed to make a deep run.

The less-than-surprising surprises here are Tom and Benji. Both of them are pretty GREAT players and have both top cut at a regional this year (Benji ended up winning one of the two he cut). They both have been preparing hard, and both have the ability to make the plays that can win them the matches in crunch time.

The two strangers to this list are Collin and Keegan. Some may know Keegan as the Confuse Ray Jellicent man, a legend on Pokemon Showdown! Ever since he figured out why it was laughed at, though, he’s constructed solid teams and is hard to get a good read on, making him a more enigmatic pick. Collin has been consistently good whenever he’s played, but also has yet to prove he belongs on this list. I think he’s a rather safe bet, though, as he’s pretty confident in his team and consistently plays well.

Top 8: Stephen Morioka (Stephen), William Hall (Biosci), Randy Kwa (R Inanimate), Enosh Shachar (Human)

No surprises from here on out. These four are some of the harder people to get into the minds of, as they all have their own style of play that intrigues any competitive player. Stephen has consistently done well at Regionals this year, and has enough CP that he could have a Worlds invite to show for it with a finish outside of the cut, which I see as less of a possibility than top cutting. Randy has used a ton of different Pokemon and knows where to use his creative touch- something many other players aspire to do. He plays consistently yet unpredictably, making it hard to figure out how to play against him.

Biosci is someone who has the confidence and comfort with the current meta, as he’s been using Pokemon that have risen up long before they were around. That experience should carry him along well. Finally, Human, the guy no one honestly wants to play (unless you’re in the semifinals). He’s been arguably the most consistently good player this season, and is long overdue for winning a trip. He’s more than capable of winning the event outright, but will he finally break the curse of the prize money?

Top 4: Harrison Saylor (Crow), Benjamin Rothman (Nightblade7000), Michael Lanzano (JiveTime)

Crow and Nightblade are two of the favorites in this tournament given their ability to make consistent plays against less-skilled competition, and their knowledge of playing higher-level opponents well. They’re two different players in regard to their demeanor, but both playstyles end up on the same path of success. They both have a good track record over the last two years as well, to add to the confidence. JiveTime is a bit of a surprise here, considering he’s only top 2’d one Regional this year, but he did win a Regional last year, and has shown that he’s on his game in practice.

Champion: Simon Yip (TDS)

Surprise? Sort of, but not as much as it first seems. Simon is someone who doesn’t mess around when it comes to playing, putting constant pressure on his opponents and making decisive plays all game long. He has only had one top four finish this year, but that doesn’t tell the story of 2011, where he got a team last minute and still qualified for worlds. He’s got the raw ability and smarts to win a big tournament like this, and with his get-right-to-work mentality of playing and teambuilding, he should be in a good position to not only lock up his invite, but make a run to the finals.

There’s obviously a ton of other people worth mentioning, but I think after reading comments in the seniors preview article, I’m going to keep it at a top 16. There’s clearly a ton more players who could top cut that I didn’t include, many of whom I couldn’t decide on and flipped a coin in my head here. If you’re upset about being snubbed in any predictions, turn it into motivation and prove that you belong on the list next year, or for worlds if you end up REALLY proving it!

Scott Glaza (Scott)

As for my own picks…

While they don’t always get to the end of every tournament, I think North America has had a pretty well-defined class of players who are a little better than the rest. That group starts with Ray Rizzo (Ray), Wolfe Glick (Wolfey), and Matt Coyle (OneEyedWonderWeasel), who have all top cut Worlds each of the last two years. I think that general grouping of players can be extended to include some players who haven’t had quite the same big tournament success as they have, but who play at a similarly high level at every event, such as Trista Medine (ryuzaki), Kamaal Harris (FonicFrog), Duy Ha (Duy), and Simon Yip (TDS). While they’ve all had cold seasons for the most part, either due to not trying as hard as they could have or due to not attending events, there’s some other established guys who either did well last year like Danny Zollner (TTS)(Dan), Harrison Saylor (Crow), and Joe Pulkowski (sandman), or who have proven their skill in the distant past in spite of having a foot in the grave now, like Huy Ha (Huy), Paul Hornak (makiri), and Mike Suleski (OmegaDonut), that I would lump into that group of consistently dominant players. I’m always a little worried about whether or not people who haven’t had strong showings this year will wake up for Nationals, but I think these guys represent the most reliable group of players over the long term, and if they’re on their games this weekend, any of them could easily win the tournament. I’d expect all of them to contend for top cut.

This season, it’s seemed like we might be promoting some new names to that group. Zach Droegkamp (Zach), Randy Kwa (R Inanimate), Benjamin Rothman (Nightblade7000), and Aaron Zheng (Cybertron)(now that he’s proving he can do it with the big boys) have all had big seasons so far, and the torch looks like it could be passing to them. If Nationals is a just tournament that recognizes the most effective players of 2013, one of those players will be champion, and all four of them will at least finish in the top cut and go on to play in Worlds.

There are several other players with byes likely to make the top cut, including Stephen Morioka (Stephen), Ben Irons (benjithegreat), Oliver Valenti (Smith), William Hall (Biosci), Dan Levinson (dtrain), Michael Lanzano (JiveTime), Matt Sybeldon (bearsfan092), and hopefully myself. I think it’ll be a tough field for players without a bye to break into given how many names I’ve mentioned already (24 so far if you take out Ray, who likely won’t try), but there’s a few other notables without byes like Greyson Garren (Greysong), Tiffany Stanley (Shiloh), and Toler Webb(Dim) who I’d also expect to be busy during the singles cup. I would not be surprised to see Cory Moeller (cmoeller22), Maurice Easterly, or Tony Cheung (Chinese Dood) make cut in spite of being smaller names with byes… somewhat inexplicably in the reigning Canadian champion’s case.

I’d say you probably wind up with most of the top cut from the 31 players mentioned so far. As far as the players most likely to go deep, I’d lean toward the group in my second paragraph there, with those four probably being my ideal top 4 in a just world, perhaps with OneEyedWonderLiar, Trista Medine, Kamaal Harris, or Simon Yip splattered in. For the winner, the smart money is on Randy Kwa this time. Outside of a little miscue during the last set of Regionals, it just seems to be his season, both online and offline. While some of my more traditional prediction options either seem to be making weird team choices recently or aren’t putting quite as much time in, Randy plays as much as anyone and always looks good. He has a pretty well-defined style that works well against most of the other North Americans, and I think it makes him the most likely to come out on top here.

That’s All, Folks!

I hope everyone enjoys the predictions, but while predictions are fun, what matters in the end is who actually wins. I’ll be there to give it my best shot, and I hope I’ll see lots of you there, too. There can only be one winner, but everyone can have a great time, so do your best(so you have no regrets) and maybe you’ll be one of the players who move on to Vancouver!

About the Author

Scott started playing VGC in 2011. He finished 17th at US Nationals, then lost in the final round of 2011 Worlds LCQ. He finished 10th in the 2012 World Championships and qualified for Worlds again in 2013 after going into US Nationals second in CP. Instead of playing, he commentated at US Nationals and the World Championships in 2013 and 2014. Follow him on Twitter @NBNostrom!

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