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Published on January 19th, 2013 | by Scott

Here We Go Again: 2013 North American Winter Regionals Preview

While battling by ourselves for hours alone in dark rooms over Wi-Fi has been super fun, we will once again return to the “outside” and battle in person at Regionals on Sunday! As the third event in the season and the second one that actually rewards meaningful prizes we’re pretty well in the swing of things already, but 2013 Winter Regionals are noteworthy for being the first live event where Black 2 and White 2 are legal, hopefully (but likely not) leading to interesting new strategies. There’s been a few minor changes, but the metagame is incredible stable compared to this time last year, so it should come down to the players who are playing the best or who invested in the most rabbit’s feet pulling it off.

Format Changes

Bye, Bye, Bye

While we had a number of exciting changes before the previous set of Regionals due to the beginning of the 2013 VGC season, the only change from outside of the games this time is the addition of byes. For the Winter Regionals, any players with 4 or more Championship Points this season will receive a bye in the first round and the tasty, tasty 100% opponent win percentage for that round that comes with it. Obviously, this is a pretty big change that should help keep the results of these Regionals more consistent with the overall standings than they might have been otherwise while also making it slightly tougher for players who didn’t play in the first set of Regionals to finish high, since they are more likely to lose on tiebreakers in addition to having to play an extra round to get to the same point. I think rewarding consistent success is a good idea and that it is good that it encourages people to travel to multiple events to make them bigger and more competitive, but I think it’ll be really interesting to see how big of an impact it makes on players who would otherwise be serious contenders who don’t have any CP going into the event. Incidentally, I feel like about half of the frequent posters on Nugget Bridge have a bye going into Regionals, so my positive view of this may be a little biased…

Exciting New Game Carts

The other big change for this Regionals is that it is the first live event that allows Black 2 and White 2 and all of the new goodies they bring. However, if the recent Wi-Fi competition is any indication most of those new goodies are pretty trivial and haven’t yet had a major impact on the metagame. Since Regionals are weighted so much heavier than any other event before Nationals, I would imagine if anyone thinks they have anything metagame breaking they’ll save it for this, but I don’t think it is too likely we’ll see a lot of really crazy uses of the new stuff. I’d expect Thundurus-T and Landorus-T to see a little more usage at Regionals than they did in the Wi-Fi tournament, but otherwise outside of a couple new users of moves like Earth Power and Low Kick it seems like we’re still playing the same game we were before. Even the metagame hasn’t had too many major shifts, resembling the game prior to Worlds very closely beyond Sand becoming more popular and Rain becoming less.

“Hey guys, remember meeeeeeeeee?”

2013 Winter Regionals Predictions

The section for each Regional will feature some background information on the Regional, the people I would expect to cut and the most interesting story lines (The Story), and the player most likely to win (The Smart Money is on…), sometimes with added conjecture if I have a gut feeling in another direction.

It should be noted before I go any further: Regionals are the most wide open of all VGC events. While established players have had the clamps firmly locked in for Nationals and Worlds the past several years, Regionals is where players become established and break out. I can basically guarantee that in every regional (except maybe Virginia) there will be at least two or three players in the Top Cut we aren’t super familiar with. That’s a good thing — it means the game is growing and more players are playing at a high level. However, I can’t write about people we don’t know yet, so don’t take there being no further mentions of anyone but established players in any of these sections as an expectation that big names are going to sweep all of the top cut slots, because they won’t.

I also apologize if I miss some people that I should have put in these sections… I will probably forget a couple people or not realize what events people are going to since we don’t have a super accurate attendance list anywhere.

Virginia Regional

Difficulty Rating:

/ 5

(the only team Cybertron knows how to play out of five)

Last Year’s Winner: Josh Conrad

The Story: The poor trainers who live in the Northeast…

It is no secret that the part of the country with the highest concentration of strong players is the Northeast, and that certainly won’t change this time. I could probably list off 20 people who have a decent shot of top cutting here, but I’ll try and stick to the premise of 8ish trainers in each section. Perhaps the most obvious name is that of Nightblade7000, who just came off a big win at Apex for SO much money. Every tournament it seems we predict Ben to win, so perhaps after finally getting the monkey off of his back at Apex he’ll follow up with another big one here. His opponent in the Apex finals, Cybertron, is definitely also one of the players with better odds after success in that tournament, making the finals of the last Northeastern Regional, and playing well in some challenging international play. Cybertron’s Team USA teammates ryuzaki, EnFuego, Wolfey and defending World Champion Ray will also be at the event and looking to follow up on their exhibition success with some big CPs.

sandman had sort of a rough Regional last time, but if he winds up going he’s always a huge threat to win as someone who has proven to be one of the world’s best players. dtrain and tds picked up some nice points in Toronto’s Regional in the Fall, and should prove that in spite of that Regional not being the strongest event that cycle they earned those CPs for a reason. There’s also a handful of dark horse picks that I feel a little silly referring to as such since they’d be favorites anywhere else such as Sapphire Birch, nachocheese999, and cakesofspan.

As expected, the Virginia Regional looks to be one of the hardest of the year by virtue of being the most convenient for the trainers living in the states around New York and whoever wins it will really prove they’re a major threat to go to Worlds this year. Expect fantastic battles, an amazingly strong top cut, and some big surprises as big names fail to make near the top because there just aren’t going to be enough spots to go around.

The Smart Money is on…: EnFuego. While he’s sort of been a do-really-well-but-never-win-an-event type, sooner or later he has to finish one off and I wouldn’t be surprised if this was it. When I can I like to predict the best player in the event, and with both Ray and Wolfey probably not trying extremely hard thanks to their free trip to Worlds already I still think that player is him. I know Nightblade7000 is the trendy pick here, and I do expect he’ll top cut, but winning two tournaments in two weeks would be a heck of a run after being that-guy-who-never-actually-wins-even-though-we-all-predict-him-for-everything a week ago.

Attending this event? Join your fellow competitors in discussion on our forum.

South California Regional

Difficulty Rating: / 5

(Two Politoeds and a Golduck out of five)

Last Year’s Winner: Michael Rivera

The Story: At a glance the Californian Regional looks like a battle between up and coming younger players and some storied older players who’s best Pokemon may be behind them. I think many of those older guys could remind us why they have/had the reputations they do/did and win an event like this at any moment, but I think the time has come where it is the kids who are headlining this event.

Human is invading from the northeast and is perhaps the most obvious threat at the event after getting top 8 at Nationals and top 4 at the previous Regionals with a hilarious Worlds LCQ loss to Illuminate Starmie sandwiched in between. kamz won his first Masters Regional and has the highest ELO in the world right now for whatever that is worth, though I notice he hasn’t been playing PO quite as fanatically as he usually does before an event, something I’m curious about the impact of. kingofkongs rounds out the trio of young stars at this event, who hopefully will change up his strategy this time and actually attempt to win all of his matches after his previous strategy led to him not cutting.

The Ha brothers have been the most reliable members of the old guard in recent years and are likely to do well again using their creative strategies. Duy broke his streak of losing one game away from a Worlds invite at the last 3 events he’d attended (Nats 11, Worlds 11, Worlds 12) last Regional using the clever strategy of playing in an event where you aren’t able to win an invite to Worlds at all but lost a round short of the money instead. Huy had a weaker Regional, but is coming off a 9th place finish in 2012 Worlds with the blood of his brother on his hands from the last round of the LCQ. I’m not sure what OmegaDonut or Metabou are running these days, but they’re both good enough to come out of nowhere and stomp this event if they’ve been practicing.

Wi-Fi tournament champion Biosci will also be in attendance, departing from beautiful Hawaii in order to play a video game. The other name I wonder if people are forgetting about is Hayden Morrison and his 110 CP… it will be very interesting to see how he follows up that performance.

The Smart Money is on…: This is probably the Regional I least like predicting, but I’m going to give the nod to Huy for this one. I think the kids are all probably more reliable picks over the course of the season, but there’s something about each of them that scares me going into this event, so I’m going to go with what I know for this one.

Attending this event? Join your fellow competitors in discussion on our forum.

Oregon Regional

Difficulty Rating: / 5

(one Abomasnow out of five)

Last Year’s Winner: Brandon Degarimore

The Story: In what will likely be one of the more shallow Winter Regionals, Oregon is an event that is open for some interesting stories since there aren’t a lot of big names at the event likely to take up too many of the top cut slots. I think R Inanimate would probably have been the favorite at whatever Regional he went to at this point with how strong he’s been in online tournaments lately, and with this Regional being a little weaker I’d be surprised if he didn’t do very well. His brother, Team Rocket Elite, is better known for his research than for his battling, but I would expect him to do well also given the field. One interesting out of towner is Evan Falco, who is flying in to try to add on to his 98 CP. I know some of his strategies in the past have been a little time sensitive, so it’ll be interesting to see what he brings to a live event with the 20 minute timers. I know the Moriokas came to Oregon last time, so hopefully they’ll decide to go again to spice up a Regional I am already struggling to find things to write about. Maybe some of our other Canadian friends will break out?

The Smart Money is on…: R Inanimate. He is really the only person I think anyone will predict in good faith for this event. I hope the pressure of being a favorite doesn’t get to him, because he’s also someone I think everyone would really enjoy seeing win. He’s earned the respect he has right now and is the heavy favorite here.

Attending this event? Join your fellow competitors in discussion on our forum.

Missouri Regional

Difficulty Rating: / 5

(Three Weavile out of five remind you not to go outside in St. Louis after dark)

Last Year’s Winner:

The Story: The Midwest is kind of a funny region for Pokemon. It tends to be seen as one of the weaker Regionals even though I think it tends to both have pretty reasonable depth and a decent chunk of players who have had deep Nationals runs and Worlds experience. While the competitors list will look a little tamer than usual without the two 2012 Regionals winners from that part of the country in Zach (who is going to Florida) and tad38 (who isn’t going) available, there’s still enough here that this is probably a better event than most people realize (as usual). The most recognizable group of people this time might be Team Magma, who pretty much completely dominated the Texas Regional in the Fall and will be sending almost all of their members to St. Louis this time. While I’m not completely sure which of them are actually coming at this point because their status is flakier than a high school student’s Facebook relationship status, we will at the very least likely see strong performances from the seemingly perpetually underrated but consistently high-finishing Shiloh and a lesser known player in TheZeroVirus, with a big boost to their team’s odds if Smith_ and Benji manage to show up.

In addition to the Magmas, there’ll be a handful of more local competitors who should be serious threats like Greysong, JRank, and mattj. One of the more interesting competitors here will be jhud, who is one of the few known players who I believe doesn’t already have a bye. While that will make things harder for him, he’s looked better than almost anyone going into the Regional in spite of apparently have contracted some horrible disease from battling Fishy at Nationals judging by how quirky his team is, which makes him one of the tournament’s favorites. ~~Sixonesix~~ FonicFrog is perpetually one of the game’s most consistent and feared players and his tournament history stands out a bit from most of the other competitors in this tournament. There’s a handful of other people I’m not completely sure if are actually going/I’m not sure are actually going to be playing VGC if they do well in TCG, but if they wind up being in the field Biffster, Captain Falcon, and kinderlew could also be threats. Also, I’ll be there, for whatever that’s worth.

It seems like in many ways this is a Regionals full of players who may or may not actually show up and of players who had results in the Fall Regionals that fell below their usual standards, so this could either be an extremely competitive Regional or an episode of America’s Funniest Home Videos.

The Smart Money is on…: FonicFrog. I kinda wanted to go with TheZeroVirus or jhud here, but I think FonicFrog has the best combination of tournament history and quality play right now to make him the most likely winner.

Attending this event? Join your fellow competitors in discussion on our forum.

Florida Regional

Difficulty Rating: / 5.

(One Vulpuix out of Five)

(Because I couldn’t give it a Ninetales in good faith)

(it isn’t holding Eviolite)

Last Year’s Winner: Grafton Roll

The Story: The southern events tend to get looked down upon a little too, though in this case I think it is for good reason. The top part of this regional should be pretty good, headlined by two of the best players in the country, Zach and Crow. However, there are only a handful of players after them who I would expect to be able to top cut at any other Regional… which leads to this being one of the most shallow Regionals in VGC history (though less so than last year, thankfully). DrFidget top cut in Ft. Wayne in the Fall and his presence should go a long way toward making this Regional more respectable if he does so again here. I assume TheMantyke is going due to where he lives, and since he’s probably better at Pokemon than moderating relative to most of the other people who will show up to this event I would expect him to do well. There’s also a couple travelers I know of I’m not allowed to mention, who round out the list of “people who we actually know here who are good at Pokemon.” This is one case where I would almost expect everyone I mentioned to wind up in the top 10 or so, because after them I don’t even know what to mention. I guess the Florida State Pokemon League might do kind of OK again…?

The Smart Money is on…: Crow. After one of the sadder Top 8 Nationals losses I can remember last year I expect big things from him this season, and I think that this is really his tournament to lose. While his buddy Zach will give him a run for his money, Zach already won a Regional this year and is sitting on a comfy bit of CP while Crow is at 0 after being too sick to play in the first set of events, so he’s probably the hungrier player here.

Attending this event? Join your fellow competitors in discussion on our forum.

Have No Regrets

One behalf of the rest of the Nugget Bridge staff I’d like to wish the best of luck to all of the players competing this weekend, those mentioned and those who were not. Have a good time and do your best, these tournaments don’t come every day!

(but they do come three times a year)

About the Author

Scott started playing VGC in 2011. He finished 17th at US Nationals, then lost in the final round of 2011 Worlds LCQ. He finished 10th in the 2012 World Championships and qualified for Worlds again in 2013 after going into US Nationals second in CP. Instead of playing, he commentated at US Nationals and the World Championships in 2013 and 2014. Follow him on Twitter @NBNostrom!