It Begins: 2012 North American Fall Regionals Preview
The time has finally come: In just two days the first real event of the 2013 VGC Season, the 2012 Fall Regionals, will be upon us. Despite using the same ruleset, with the exception of the metagame-breaking Worlds Flying Pikachu, there have been some fairly major changes for VGC since the last Regional, so this article will be your guide for the 2013 changes as well offer insight on the top players at each Regional and what strategies are likely to be popular.
Rule Changes
Timer Rule Change
Not content to merely get nicknames removed, Wolfe has somehow managed to get a second rule changed in one year, as the match timer for each match has now been extended to 20 minutes!
Just kidding! Well. Sort of kidding. Anyway, there were an eggstremely large amount of matches going down to the tiebreak system with the old 15 minute match timer, which lead to some pretty strange situations where the judges tried to rush play and matches ended before the result was really determined. This change should be a pretty significant improvement for VGC, both for the sake of helping keep the judges on the sidelines and helping to get more matches ending because all four Pokemon on one side have actually been defeated. I played at least one game at every event last season that went to time, which is a pretty unfulfilling way to end a battle, regardless of whether you win or lose. After enduring some super fun situations like losing 4-3 to Wolfe (instead of the 4-0 he deserved…) and “beating” Matt Sybeldon (bearsfan092) 2-2, I’m pretty sure this change will make for a better experience for everyone.
Top Cut Added
In perhaps the most necessary change made since the entry lottery was abolished, VGC Regionals now have mandatory top cuts! No longer will final results be determined exclusively by my favorite part of VGC events, opponent’s win %! While the top cut is only listed as being 8 deep for VGC, it should vastly improve the legitimacy of the final placings, as the top players will have to actually beat the other top players to finish on top. We had some weird situations like Paul Hornak (makiri) going 6-0 and then losing in the last round of last November’s Long Beach, CA, Regional, only to finish 3rd in spite of being the last undefeated because of a bizarre tiebreaker situation. This should guarantee all X-1s and some X-2s stay in the hunt for the title. It should be noted that top cut matches are best of three games, so make sure you have a team that will work even after your opponents have seen it once if you want to win it all!
Prizes Lost
It just wouldn’t be Pokemon if we only received good news, and I’m sad to report that several Pokemon trainers have been put on the streets by TPCI’s decision to cut prize support from one of the three tiers of events we get to have in VGC. While 1st place (paid trip to Nationals and a hotel once you get there) and 2nd place (300 dollar travel stipend) have gone untouched, 3rd and 4th place in the Masters division now get… absolutely nothing. But hey, at least now the top cut matches will decide who gets nothing instead of opponent win %, that’s pretty cool, right? I guess TPCI has to save money where they can, but it’s kind of sad to think that, unless Nationals is reworked, the total number of players receiving prizes this year won’t be able to exceed 34 in the Masters division before Worlds.
Championship Points
Perhaps the most exciting change for VGC this year is the addition of the championship point system. For those who aren’t familiar with the system at all, basically you get some arbitrary amount of Championship Points based on the importance of the event (Regionals grant less than Nationals), the amount of players in the event, and how high you finish in the event. After Nationals, the 4 players with the most CP will be awarded non-paid invitations to Worlds. While we seem to be a year behind the cycle on this, both getting CP a year after TCG and now getting the less favorable “top 4 CP players get a Worlds invite for each region” system instead of the “everyone over x amount of points in the region gets a Worlds invite” system the TCG has now, there is now a reason to try to finish high in VGC beyond the newly reduced prize support. While it is still a little ambiguous exactly how the distribution of CP is going to work across the season, players who want to play in Worlds will want to to do well at each Regional and in Nationals in order to try to get the bonus invites if they fail to earn the automatic bids at Nationals.
Trends
Last Thing’s First
While Fall Regionals last year was an exciting opportunity to misuse new Pokemon and moves after the disaster that was the 2011 ruleset, we are stuck with another event of the 2012 rules this year, presumably because of Black 2/White 2’s late release date. This will lead to a very different environment of which players should be aware. While last year a lot of players were experimenting with new ideas during Regionals and the metagame wasn’t yet developed, these Regionals will likely have the tightest metagame a Regional has ever seen, with a grand total of 20 previous events using the same rules, including two sets of 2012 Regionals, every country’s Nationals, and Worlds to draw ideas from. It is likely that fewer teams will be really innovative at this point in the season, with more players latching on to ideas that were successful at other tournaments rather than trying to reinvent the wheel. It will likely take a better team to win a Regional this weekend than it took this time last year.
Hawaiian Punch
Perhaps the most obvious impact on the Fall Regionals will come from Worlds. The big event in Hawaii was only a couple short (read: agonizingly long) months ago, and both popular teams and popular move and Pokemon trends are likely to carry over to Regionals. For instance, while the standard Hitmontop once carried coverage moves like Sucker Punch, nearly everyone who used it in Worlds used a Rock-type attack instead, and Stone Edge can probably be considered part of the standard set now. Similarly, Hidden Power Fire was almost as common on Cresselia at Worlds as Psyshock/Psychic and Ice Beam/Icy Wind, so players should consider it a possibility and potentially curb their own use of Pokemon like Scizor and Ferrothorn accordingly.
Players should also be prepared for opposing players to be running the teams of successful Worlds players. Popular choices thus far include Ray Rizzo’s team, Wolfe Glick’s team (which has also basically singlehandedly introduced Skill Swap into the metagame as a serious tactic), and Huy Ha’s team. I would advise players who expect to win to veer away from doing this — it’s tough to play a team as well as the team’s original owner does, and you’re putting yourself at a big information disadvantage if your team is too close to a well known original.
The Impact of the Great August DCfest
One other very interesting factor going into these Regionals is the impact of the recent Wi-Fi tournament, the Autumn “Friendly.” Many players will probably be more practiced than they otherwise would have been after the summer having practiced in the Autumn Friendly, which should bring the level of play up a little bit across the board. The recent Wi-Fi tournament is also useful to get a feel for usage trends beyond the top players: look for the top 10 most used Pokemon in the Autumn Friendly (Garchomp, Metagross, Tyranitar, Cresselia, Rotom-W, Scizor, Hitmontop, Politoed, Hydreigon, Gastrodon) to be pretty close to the same as the top 10 in Regionals. Trends within that usage should be noted, too — look out for Bullet Punch Metagross (used 68.8% of the time) and Sucker Punch Hitmontop from less experienced players (still 65.3% in spite of how much it fell off at Worlds).
2012 Fall Regionals
The section for each Regional will feature some background information on the Regional, the people most likely to do well and the most interesting story lines (The Story), and the player most likely to win (The Smart Money is on…), sometimes with added conjecture if I have a gut feeling in another direction.
It should be noted before I go any further: Regionals are the most wide open of all VGC events. While established players have had the clamps firmly locked in for Nationals and Worlds the past several years, Regionals is where players become established and break out. I can basically guarantee that in every regional (except maybe Philadelphia) there will be at least two or three players in the Top Cut we aren’t super familiar with. That’s a good thing — it means the game is growing and more players are playing at a high level. However, I can’t write about people we don’t know yet… just don’t take there being no further mentions of anyone but established players in any of these sections as an expectation that big names are going to sweep all of the top cut slots, because they won’t.
Ft. Wayne (Indiana) Regional
Difficulty Rating:
/ 5
(Three Ferrothorns and a Mamoswine out of 5)
Tournament Organizer: Derek Farber
Last Year’s Winner: Luke Allen Swenson (theamericandream38)
The Story: The group of players in the Midwest has never gotten quite the same respect that the players on either of the United States’ coasts have enjoyed, but perhaps the results of the 2012 season will change that a little. Luke Swenson, the 2012 Ft. Wayne winner, and Zach Droegkamp (Zach), the 2012 Madison winner, both managed to prove their Regionals success was no fluke and finish in the top 8 at Nationals, barely missing out on Worlds invitations. Kamaal Harris (FonicFrog) is the last safe bet for top cut, known for being one of the game’s most consistent players, finishing 11th at US Nationals in 2012 and 14th in Worlds in 2011.
The Fort Wayne regional also features a number of strong players who are less established than some of the players mentioned before them. Greyson Garren (GreySong) had an uneventful 2012 season, but finished 18th in 2011’s Worlds and top 8 in 2011 US Nationals. Scott Glaza (Scott) is coming off a decent Worlds finish at 10th, but like Kamaal Harris he has a strange tendency to go into hibernation for most of the season after Worlds until the following year’s Nationals, leading to some mediocre Regionals performances. A number of other players who have fewer credentials but are good enough to break out will also be in attendance, including Bisty and IceKingz.
Fort Wayne is wide open, with three players who won Regionals in 2012 and three more players with recent Worlds experience. However, only Luke has proven he has the skills to win consistently inside what appears to be an abandoned hangar.
The Smart Money is on…: Well, it was on Harrison Saylor (Crow), assuming he made it to the event. This regional has a lot of great players in it, but it’s hard to bet against a guy who not only has already won a regional under this format, but who is also coming off a 10-1 Nationals performance, edging him ahead of fellow top cut probables in Zach and Luke. However, it is hot off the press that his status has been updated from DTD to IR, so with him out of the field I guess I must fall back on the defending champion, Luke. He seems much more prepared than the rest of us, anyway.
However, I’m sort of hoping Kaleb Grapp (Psycho) manages to inexplicably win after inexplicably going 6-1 last year, so that I can write about someone winning a regional with a concussion. How sick is that story? Hook me up, bro.
Attending this event? Join your fellow competitors in discussion on our forum.
Philadelphia (Pennsylvania) Regional
Difficulty Rating:
/ 5
(5 Garchomp and a Shedinja out of 5)
Tournament Organizer: Dorian Redburn
Last Year’s Winner: JiveTime
The Story: Philadelpha is notorious for being the largest (and longest!) Regional on the VGC schedule, and it looks like this year will be no exception. While I had to scrape the bottom of the barrel to find a reasonable number of players to mention for most of these Regionals, Philadelphia almost has too many good players to mention, so time for the lightning round. It’s hard not to start with two players who don’t particularly need to win this event because they already have Worlds invites locked up: 2012 Worlds Masters Runner-up Wolfe Glick (Wolfey) and 2012 Seniors Champion Toler Webb (Dim). Typically, people with that Worlds trip locked up tend not to take Regionals too seriously, so those of you predicting them to win might wanna roll things back a little even though Wolfe will definitely be the best player in the room.
Even with those two probably taking it easy, there’s more than enough elite talent to fill up the Top Cut and then some. Perhaps the most interesting player to watch will be Aaron Zheng (Cybertron) in his first event in Masters. He never quite managed to capture that elusive Worlds title, but I think it’s fair to say that event for event he was the most dominant player the Seniors division has ever seen, and he will likely have a much smoother transition to Masters in VGC than he has in TCG. Nightblade7000 hasn’t yet finished the job at any major events, but is one of those consistently effective smaller name guys that everyone seems to be expecting a big performance from soon. Another player everyone is kind of waiting to see finish the job at the Masters level is Enosh Shachar (Human), who had a good year for the most part during his first year in Masters, finishing with a Nationals Top 8 appearance. JiveTime had a mediocre performance at Nationals in spite of his byes, but as the defending champion is someone to look out for here. The big name most likely to be overlooked going to the event is Danny Zollner (Dan), who everyone is sleeping on again in spite of him being one of only two players to top cut US Nationals each of the last three years with some strong Regional finishes on his resume, as well. Even this deep listing players, I haven’t mentioned Joe Pulkowski (sandman), who was pretty cleanly the 3rd best player in Masters last year, finishing 2nd at Nationals and top 4 at Worlds. There’s also a ton of strong trainers who’d be favorites at other events that could come away with a surprise win like Evan Latt (evan), Dom Gliatis (Kinderlew), Angel Miranda (Sapphire Birch), and PFruit.
Of course, there’s no denying the biggest storyline… is Mike Sankey (drcossack) actually going to show up ???
The Smart Money is on… Joe Pulkowski. There’s a ton of great players at this event, and because of that it could go to any one of them, but you’d have to be pretty foolish to argue sandman isn’t the favorite considering the success he’s had under this ruleset. The first regional of the season being VGC 2012 rules definitely plays to his advantage considering his success last year. Without Ray Rizzo (Ray) and potentially Wolfe to worry about, this could be his day to grab a title.
However, my heart is with Coobertron I belief <3
San Jose (NorCal) Regional
Difficulty Rating:
/ 5
(2 Plusle and 2 Minun out of 5)
Tournament Organizer: Kim Cary
Last Year’s Winner: Marco Sandoval (Nickscor)
The Story: While the west coast was once considered to be among the toughest regions after sending Omari Travis (BadIntent), the Schambers brothers, and the Ha brothers to Worlds in 2010, hard times have fallen on the players in the West and this Regional no longer has quite the prestige it used to. In spite of their cumulative relative lack of success against the rest of the country lately, San Jose’s field will be loaded with players who have the potential to be among the best in the world.
The brother acts are probably the most famous Californian trainers, and after having to face off in the last round of Worlds LCQ, they’ll be a poised for a strong event. Huy Ha (Huy) is coming off a 9th place Worlds finish, recovering after the bizarre year that was 2011. Duy Ha (Duy) is guaranteed to break his streak of losing one game away from Worlds at every event he goes to at 3, since to the best of my knowledge it’s been a long time since anyone qualified for Worlds at a Regional except in Europe. Nickscor sort of came out of nowhere last year, but after he won this Regional he went on to top cut Nationals — something no one else going to this Regional was able to do last year — making him a major threat to repeat. Alan Schambers didn’t fare as well in Nationals as Nickscor after getting Byes from the other Californian Regional, but he’s proven with his 2010 and 2011 Worlds appearances that he’s strong enough to overcome one bad event. It’s also about the time of the year where Paul Hornak reminds us he exists by winning or nearly winning a Regional like every other year. A discussion of competitors in the West is never complete without Mike Suleski (OmegaDonut), who is due for another big event given his skill and practice. There’ll be a ton of Seniors graduates who could make a big splash in their first Masters event, such as Gavin Michaels (kingofkongs) and former world champs Kamran Jahadi (Kamz) and Jeremy Fan (AlphaOmega). Also, DeagleBeagle will be there to explain why all the teams that beat him are horrible teams used by horrible players.
The Smart Money is on…: Duy Ha. Hopefully he can avoid Paul and Huy this time, but no one has been as consistently effective in this field as he has the past few years… time for him to get back in the spotlight.
Attending this event? Join your fellow competitors in discussion on our forum.
Houston (Texas) Regional
Difficulty Rating:
/ 5
(Three Gastrodons out of five)
Tournament Organizer: Mike Cook
Last Year’s Winner: Len Deuel (Alaka)
The Story: While Houston has a somewhat shallow field, there is enough quality in the comparably few players that will be there to make the tournament interesting. Last year’s winner, Len Deuel, perennially winds up with travel awards from Regionals, and he’ll look to continue his streak in at a venue he’s already won at with a ruleset he’s already won with. Top contenders include Jason Fisher-Short (Fish), coming off a top 16 Nationals finish and a 6-1 performance at Colorado’s April Regional, and perhaps the two best female Pokemon trainers in the world, Alison McDonald (Fishy), the Colorado Springs champion, and Trista Medine (ryuzaki), who will be incredibly furious at me for mentioning that she is a girl Pokemon trainer who is a girl. Also, she finished 9th in 2011 Worlds and 10th in 2012 Nationals. While being a girl.
Other notable contenders include some recent Seniors graduates like Jonathan Rankin (JRank) and Kenan Nerad (Lucien Lechance) and an armada of players from Team Magma. While they’re busy being card game big shots, potential appearances by 2011 VGC Regional Winners Robbie Miles (Biff) and Thomas Lamont (Captain Falcon) could shake up the standings if they play. Editor evan and I also demand a powerful performance from our powerful apprentice, Cathadora, who we think now knows most of the type chart.
The Smart Money is on… Len Deuel. This is as close as they can come toward the top, so I have to side with the defending champion. He’s pretty good at this Regionals thing. However, I think Alison should win instead so I get at least two rounds where I can’t wind up playing her at Nationals.
Attending this event? Join your fellow competitors in discussion on our forum.
Toronto (Ontario) Regional
Difficulty Rating:
/ 5
(One Pidgey out of Five)
(Because we don’t have half Pidgey sprites in our database)
Tournament Organizer: Marvin Paguirigan
Last Year’s Winner: c l e a r
The Story: Somewhat inexplicably, the Toronto regional — already one of the lower turnout events for VGC — is occurring on the same weekend as both Philadelphia and Fort Wayne, the two Regionals closest to Toronto in the States. Couple that with a region that isn’t very strong to begin with, and you wind up with an event that is likely to lack many strong players.
Fortunately, a group invading from New York consisting of 2011 and 2012 Worlds top cutter Matt Coyle (EnFuego), Daniel Levinson (dtrain), and Simon Yip (TDS) are here to save the event from the journalistic disaster that is writing about an event with almost no proven players in it. By virtue of playing in a field that likely has much less experience than them they all have a good shot of picking up some respectable finishes. They’ll be met with Ren Zhu (crobert), who finished top 8 at Canadian Nationals, who will likely be the only local who’s really capable of giving them trouble.
The Smart Money is on… Ren Zhu. I know conventional wisdom gives the nod to EnFuego, but he is building up a Mike Papagianis (skarm)-esque history of being eliminated by bizarre situations over the past couple of years, and a field full of unknown players seems like the perfect opportunity for that to happen. While it could easily go to any of dtrain, Simon, or crobert from there, I think crobert will have a good playstyle match-up with his opponents in this one.
Attending this event? Join your fellow competitors in discussion on our forum.
In Conclusion
On behalf of the rest of the Nugget Bridge staff, I’d just like to wish all of you going to Regionals good luck. Have fun with it — it’s the last tournament (hopefully…) with this ruleset, and Regionals aren’t so serious anyway. We don’t get many chances to play together in real life, so make sure you enjoy yourselves!
We’d love to see everyone post their own predictions in Zach’s predictions thread. Make sure you also check out Rushan’s live update thread and help out updating everyone on your progress during the events if you can. Don’t forget to follow our Twitter for updates on all the events on Sunday, as Khalisah Bint Sinan al-Jilani will make sure to keep you all in the know.
About the Author
Scott started playing VGC in 2011. He finished 17th at US Nationals, then lost in the final round of 2011 Worlds LCQ. He finished 10th in the 2012 World Championships and qualified for Worlds again in 2013 after going into US Nationals second in CP. Instead of playing, he commentated at US Nationals and the World Championships in 2013 and 2014. Follow him on Twitter @NBNostrom!
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