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Published on April 12th, 2014 | by Scott

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2014 North American Spring Regionals Preview Part 2

Well, here we are, the last weekend of North American VGC Regionals. After this week, we should know basically who will be getting stipends to play in US Nationals because Premier Challenges are not taken into account for those. Either way, with this being the last chance to pick up major Championship Points before Nationals there have been a great deal of last minute flights booked, making the events this weekend rather more interesting. Utah still seems a little weaker, but there’s been enough salty players in the eastern part of the country to liven up Wisconsin a little, at least.

Wisconsin Regional

Difficulty Rating:

/ 5

(Five horrific pun-inspiring Miltank out of five)

Last Year’s Winner: Cory Moeller-Fountain (cmoeller22)

The Story

Wisconsin is sort of bizarre event this year. It is normally an event I’d gauge as a little less than medium difficulty — the Midwest is deep enough that cutting is usually tricky, but with Madison being the northern-most Regional in the area some of the people who would show up to, say, St. Louis or Ft. Wayne don’t make it up, leading to Madison usually being a little lighter on high-end competition. That will definitely not be the case this year, where similarly to Florida in the previous cycle, there’s been some meaningful last minute additions to the roster (in addition to some planned out-of-region invaders) looking for extra CP in the last Spring VGC Regional. While I know some people are a little salty at the players who’ve attended an amount of Regionals well over the best finish limit, I think it made Florida a lot more interesting and that it will similarly make Wisconsin really fun. Of course, part of why so many players in this section are already in the top 64 is because most of them are the same people who played in that inexplicable Kansas Regional…

One factor that makes this weekend interesting in general is that most of the players currently occupying top 16 slots are idle and not defending their point totals, making the task of passing them a little more feasible for players looking to do so.  While none of them are forum-poll-signing types, I believe the only three Wisconsin will see are Wesley Morioka (Wesley)  Stephen Morioka (Stephen), and Ashton Cox (linkyoshimario). They all have enough buffer that it’s extremely unlikely they’ll miss out on Nationals trips either way, but getting a few extra points here could help their Worlds hopes significantly, since I think finishing in closer to the top 8 before Nationals is really where players should be aiming to get those invites without excellent Nationals performances. Of the three, only Wesley is likely to actually attain those points, as he has a 64th place to clean off his record, while his brother and Ashton would both need to finish in the top 8 to add to their totals. While Ashton is still a bit of an enigma to most of us, the Moriokas are as consistent as players in VGC come, and I think they’re both among the first names that come to mind when thinking about favorites for this event. Stephen gets bonus points for having made the finals last year and seemingly being the most likely of last year’s top cut players to repeat.

The current 17-32nd CP group is perhaps a little more interesting to watch here, since a big event could mean a lot of money for some of those players, and fewer of them are at the best finish limit. Greyson Garren (GreySong) is in 17th right now and only 10 points out of the top 16, so it seems like almost a foregone conclusion he’ll jump up and end up with a trip given that he only has points from two Regionals — impressively finishing in second and fourth. The middle of that pack is Collin Heier (TheBattleRoom), who made a pretty significant jump last week with his top cut finish in desolate Kansas. He’ll need to repeat his top 8 finish from last week to gain points, but doing so would put him at 210 CP and a tie with the players who are currently occupying 14th-16th. The most interesting player in that range who will be attending is Enosh Shachar (Human), who ended up travelling from the east coast because he couldn’t play last weekend. Enosh has had a slow to start to the season so far, and while he’ll get 100 CP to help his Worlds hopes based on his finish in last year’s dance, he’ll need a big finish here if he wants  a trip to Nationals. Fortunately for him, he’s only played in two Regionals this year, so any points he gets will help him charge up. He’s made some trademark eccentric team decisions so far this year, getting 2nd in Virginia without a Mega Pokemon and nearly cutting his last BW2 Regional with the previously docile Charizard, so it’ll be interesting to see what’s been training on his farm this time.

But wait, the players in that current 700$ range continue, with three players at the bottom of that range right now tied at 150 CP. Tommy Cooleen (Tman) has been one of the more interesting players to follow this year, dominating the Swiss rounds in the loaded east coast events. He’s been a ridiculous 17-1 in the swiss stage of the XY events there, the best of any player. Unfortunately, that success hasn’t led to any top cut wins for him yet, but he seems like the surest of surefire bets to get to the top cut. David Mancuso (Mancuso) has had a few too many of those dreaded one-win-too-few events this season after starting out with a top 8 finish in the last XY event. I personally expect him to cut this time — speaking from experience, that sort of thing motivates you to stop it from happening again pretty darn well. Kamaal Harris (FonicFrog) has had a heck of a time adjusting to the more offensive playstyle of XY and the shorter timer that’s come with it. I think he’s kind of one of North America’s legendary defensive players along with Trista and sometimes Wolfe, and with Trista having a great top 4 finish last weekend, maybe it’ll be time for Kamaal to break out this time too. Especially after he won our live tournament this week, my metaphorical money is that he’ll show up this time and defend his top cut spot from last year. He’s too good to keep struggling, and the metagame always slows down as it develops more. I guess I should mention the last player attending from the mid-tier stipend range — myself. In my case, I’d really much rather stay around where I’m at, so I’ll just shoot for a top 16 finish to gain a few points and try to avoid falling out of it…

Wisconsin actually has surprisingly few players sitting in the 33-64 range, though a lot of them are players who might be expected to be higher, so the upset potential, if it can even be called that, is significant. Greg Johnson (bgt) is right on the edge of that range with 130 CP, though he’s at his BFL and needs a top 16 finish to climb. Matt Sybeldeon (bearsfan092) is also at 130 and will get the full points he earns here to work with. Bears has had sort of a strange year where he’s been very very good early in swiss and very very bad late in swiss, so hopefully he can even things out a little this time. He’s seemed a little shaky on stream to me, but he’s recently gone into hiding, so I can only assume he’s doing his best impression of Rocky or Gambit Gaming or something and is going to come out and sweep the event. Keegan Beljanski (Darkeness) is a little bit lower on the CP scale on 110, and is another player who will need at least a top 16 finish to climb. He is one of several players in this range who seems to be doing pretty decently at every event without having any big finishes, but like I wrote last week, I think he’s more than capable of more (though it’s going to be awfully congested near the top in Wisconsin). I’m not actually sure if Brian Jens is playing, but he’s toward the bottom of the stipend range on two finishes right now. He finished in the top four of Madison last year, so he’s certainly shown he’s capable of doing well in this event, though the field will look very different this time. Andrew Burley (Andykins) was the x-0 in Ft. Wayne swiss, but had a rough event in St. Louis (which was at least partially the RNG’s fault — sorry about that again) and will need a good chunk of points here if he wants to get back in the big bucks stipend range. Like Brian, he also has the advantage of having only played in two events so far and getting the full value of this one as a result.

A number of players who aren’t currently in stipend range could play spoilers to the people looking to cash-in and end up with a stipend of their own. I don’t think Garchomp enthusiast Manoj Sunny (MangoSol) has played yet this year, but he’s done well in this Regional in both of the last two years, which in 2012 he cashed in for a top 4 Nationals finish and an 11th place Worlds finish. Joining him in the top 8 of Nationals that year was Luke Swenson (theamericandream38), who started the season with a top cut in Ft. Wayne. Assuming he actually has the correct moves on all of his Pokemon for this Madison Regional, he should find himself improving on last year’s finish. Andy Himes (Amarillo) is one of those players who just seem to be horrifically ill-fated in CP events relative to how he does in other mediums, so it’ll be interesting to see if he can dodge the tilt and perform to potential in this one. Tiago Maltez (CinderellaStory) is reasonably close to the stipend cut-off and more than capable of jumping the bar after a top cut finish last spring in Massachusetts. Oliver Valenti (Smith) is only at a sick 10 CP this year and is having one of those famous Pokemon-career-destroying Freshman years of college, but he’s a smart boy and that goes a long way in this game, even when you’re out of practice.

There’s actually about 8 other players I would normally mention too, but if I go any farther this is going to devolve into an attendance sheet.

The Smart Money is on…:  ENOSH BETTER WIN AFTER MAKING US ALL ENDURE LIKE TWO MONTHS OF BAD COW JOKES ON IRC

Attending this event? Join your fellow competitors in discussion on our forum.

Utah Regional

Difficulty Rating:

 / 5

(Three Lonely Pokemon out of five)

Last Year’s Winner: Michael Fladung (Primitive)

The Story

While it didn’t have quite the same attendance spike Wisconsin did, Utah actually looks a great deal more challenging than it did last year. Zach Droegkamp (Zach)and Paul Hornak (makiri) are the only current top 16 players in action in Utah, and both of them are going to need to pick up a little more CP if they want to avoid sweating bullets about being passed — especially since Greyson alone will almost definitely jump both of their current positions. They both need at least a top 16 finish in order to increase their CP counts. It seems likely with so many 8 man cuts last weekend that Utah could be another 8, so anything other than X-1 will likely lead to the rarely generous tiebreaker gods deciding whether or not these guys get their trips. However, the CP position doesn’t lie in this case: I would say they are the two easiest sells as players likely to win this event, and that comes with a great shot of cutting if nothing crazy happens. The only player in the top 32 attending is YouTube sensation Alex Ogloza (Evan Falco), who would join that tie at 210 with only a very achievable top 16 finish.

Even the players in the 33-64 range seem to have been unable to make the climb to this Regional: only Sam Johnson (RastaCharmander) tied for 41st and Tyler Hagan (Tyler) tied for 34th will be making it. Tyler made the top four of the event last year, and well, you’ve gotta figure he’s got a good shot this year given the lack of meaningful results from anyone else who will be here this season! One case that should be mentioned here is Michael Fladung (Primitive), who won last year and I believe hasn’t played in any Regionals since, so he’s still the champion until his crown is taken.

Of course, things are never really as simple as looking at who currently has points, and there are a decent chunk of players who will probably be coasting to chunks of CP that would make them relevant in this preview if Summer Regionals were a thing. Hayden Morrison (hakemo) was near the top of CP basically all of last year before falling just out of Worlds range at the end, so he’s actually one of the most proven competitors in the event. 2013 Senior Worlds runner-up Ben Hickey (Darkpenguin67) has his Worlds invite locked up and only a couple of top 32 finishes to show for his Masters experience so far, but he’s much better than that would indicate and could easily have a better event. Once a community punching bag, Joey McGinley (joej m) has apparently improved his Pokemon skills to go along with his forum posting. He’d be the easy dark horse pick here if it was really an applicable term for someone who was still alive and in the top 8 of the NB Major, but I think if there’s an easy answer when looking for bodies to fill vacant top cut slots, he is one of the most probable options. Aryana Welch (feathers)’s strategy of not having a DS wasn’t working out, so she called an audible in the middle of the week and decided to try having it returned. We’ll  stay tuned to see if  being able to play helps her odds. Patrick Donegan (Pd0nZ) has been consistently finishing a win away from where he needs to be this year in CP events, but I’ve been expecting him to blow one open for a while, and this is gonna be the last juicy opportunity of this season for him so it’s time to make one count. William Hall (Biosci) never seems to play in quite enough events to get to where you’d expect him to be on the CP rankings, but he should be pushing hard here for a decent event since I’m sure he could rather use the stipend, and a high finish would reduce how well he’ll have to do at Nationals to receive a Worlds invite. Jackson Daugherty (Jackson7 D) is only 10 points out of  a stipend right now after a surprise top 4 finish in California with Blastoise, so he could be another player to look at for a surprise exciting finish. I am a Rookie and pimp shrimp made it to the 2nd round of the NB Major top cut, for whatever that ends up being worth in real life. I don’t know if Dallas Briggs (Blues) is going, but having 50 CP already actually puts him in pretty good standing among competitors at this event, and he finish 5th last year.

The Smart Money is on…:  Zach. It’s been a few months since he last won one, and I think it’s one of the rules of the universe or something that the gaps between can’t be too long or something terrible will happen.

Attending this event? Join your fellow competitors in discussion on our forum.

About the Author

Scott started playing VGC in 2011. He finished 17th at US Nationals, then lost in the final round of 2011 Worlds LCQ. He finished 10th in the 2012 World Championships and qualified for Worlds again in 2013 after going into US Nationals second in CP. Instead of playing, he commentated at US Nationals and the World Championships in 2013 and 2014. Follow him on Twitter @NBNostrom!

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