Articles

Published on April 5th, 2014 | by Scott

28

2014 North American Spring Regionals Preview Part 1

This weekend there are some Regionals. Hooray! Who is going to those Regionals, you ask? More importantly, who do you not have to worry about because I accidentally placed some weird internet curse on them by predicting to win? Read on to find out!

Massachusetts Regional

Difficulty Rating:

 / 5

(The Wigglytoughest event of the spring season out of five)

Last Year’s Winner: Aaron Zheng (Cybertron)

The Story

I feel like everyone must be very sick of me repeating how tough the Northeast claims to be, but I’m expecting this set of Regionals will definitely be one case where the Northeast actually is the toughest. I was surprised at how weak the TCG attendance seems to have been today, because with the way the events are spread out in this group of Regionals, Massachusetts is pretty isolated, and the Northeast tends to be a bit of a gauntlet even when it isn’t.

The first XY Regional in the Northeast led to one of the most terrifying looking top cuts I’ve ever seen. We ended with two previous World Champions facing off in the final four and we were a game away from having an Enosh Shachar vs. Wolfe Glick match in the other semifinal bracket, perhaps the two most decorated American players who haven’t won World Championships. While two of those players won’t be attending this time, it’s hard to start anywhere other than the two 2012 Worlds finalists, Wolfe Glick (Wolfey) and Ray Rizzo (Ray), when looking at players likely to win the event. Wolfe has been finishing a little bit lower than I would have anticipated based on his skill level and the amount of practice he seems to be putting in this season at the XY Regionals so far, with a top 8 finish in Virginia and a missed cut in Florida. I think his lack of results (by his standards) so far is a bit of a fluke — I’d be very surprised if he isn’t in at least the top four of this event. While Wolfe is among the harder working players, Ray is perhaps one of the most… hands-off. His ability to navigate a metagame is almost inhuman, however, which allowed him to win Virginia on very little practice, and by virtue of being himself I’m sure he’ll do well again at this one. It’ll be interesting to see exactly what he brings this time, since I’ve heard he’s been having a tuff time coming up with ideas.

Of course, with this being the event it is, there’s no shortage of other elite threats. Ashton Cox (linkyoshimario) was a bit of an unknown prior to this season, but he’s actually ahead of both Ray and Wolfe on the CP rankings right now in a cool third place. I think he’s probably still not a favorite — the perception of many players is that he’s leaned a little too hard on the Rock Slide button — and he needs a top 8 finish to increase his CP total as he already has points from three events, which adds to the pressure for this one. I think more so than gaining CP, this event could be a big deal for his reputation, for what that means to him: if he does well again, it’s going to become harder and harder for people to continue overlooking his success. The next player according to CP I know is attending are Matt Coyle (PrettyLittleLiar), who I think is a both particularly interesting player to watch this time. In a just world, perhaps he would have finished much higher than he did in Virginia. After a successful run-in with Ray Rizzo late in Swiss, Matt’s reward for an 8-1 record and solid resistance was a loss to Enosh Shachar in the first round of top cut, the reigning Nationals runner-up and 6th place Worlds finisher. I’d expect him to make it far enough to get a shot at redemption, even if he seems to be experiencing Ray-levels of team confusion….

I’d normally transition into kind of the second tier of big threats here, but that’d be a little disingenuous in this tournament. While she’s been a little off this year, it’s strange to be this far down without having mentioned Trista Medine (ryuzaki). She’s at a point in the season where she really, really needs to pick up a decent chunk of points if she wants to make Worlds without an insane run at Nationals (which she’s plenty capable of), but I think this is probably the time. Many of the more defensive players struggled a little adapting to XY, which tends to be a little faster paced due to the ridiculous lack of available control moves on good Pokemon and some flaws in defensive coverage the format has created, and to compound that she was a little busy going into the last Regional, which led to her falling behind in CP a little. She’s been strong at the grassroots events in the Northeast since then, and I think it’s probably her time. Speaking of girls, Angel Miranda (Sapphire Birch) will evidently actually be playing this time since the TCG had like 12 people sign up or something. I actually think s/he’s incredibly dangerous: I probably wasn’t the only one who underestimated him/her because I think s/he had eyes only for anime and card games, but after winning the most recent NYC event, no one should be sleeping on Angel. This tsundere may seem like s/he’s not that into VGC, but you just don’t understand. Baka.

Angel’s finals opponent in that event was Patrick Donegan (Pd0nZ), who is one of those players that is much better than his current CP total of 40 would indicate. One would assume he’s more than capable of picking up some serious points in XY based off of that tournament, but there are an awful lot of underachievers in the CP events this year. Of course, no one could hope to match the consistent underachieving Aaron Zheng (Cybertron) has exhibited this season with three top 32 finishes. While Aaron is one of those players I would normally say is too good to keep finishing this way, I think more hysterical losses to Cryogonal are probably in his near future, with him focusing more on other parts of his life and being some sort of YouTube celebrity right now. Expect him to enter a cocoon soon and emerge a as a deadly Pokemon-playing butterfly shortly before the circuit gets serious at Nationals(unless you hit him with Swagger while he’s in the cocoon, then he’d probably get stuck in it forever, like that Sky Drop glitch or something). Another player who has been consistently strong in grassroots events and conspicuously missing otherwise is Chuppa Cross (Chuppa). Again, a player you’d think would end up in the top cut this time, but there’s only so many spots to go around… Perhaps my favorite case of someone who has underperformed this year is Simon Yip (Simon), because I blame it 100% on AlphaZealot crushing his spirit with the CP system last year and Wi-Fi disqualifications and all that noise. He’s still alive in the NB Major, though, so that’s good. I actually think he’ll do really well here as long as he doesn’t get stuck in any airports. I notice he thinks he’s an anime girl now also, but I think that’s Angel’s fault and not AZ’s.

I could write about another 50 paragraphs about the seasons the players in this area are having but let’s lighting round most of the remaining noteworthy players in convenient, easy to digest labels:

Underachieving former senior division players: Edward Fan (iss), Aaron Traylor (Unreality), Jonathan Hiller (MrFox)

People who were undefeated in Virginia Swiss: Tommy Cooleen (Tman)

People who have had sick top cut finishes in the past: David Mancuso (Mancuso), Tiago Maltez (CinderellaStory), Adib Alam (honchkro13)

People who have had sick top cut finishes in the past, but should probably be commentating: Oliver Valenti (Smith), Alan Sutterlin (Dubulous)

People who have had sick top cut finishes in the past and live in this general area but didn’t post in the thread so I don’t know if they’re coming: Ryan Gadea (The Knights of Wario Land), Daniel Litvin (TalkingLion)

People who have to have breakout events that count for CP eventually: Caleb Ryor (BlitznBurst), Jeudy Azzarelli (SoulSurvivor)

People who name their Pokemon after hockey players: Patrick Brodarick (wer)

The Smart Money is on…: I PICK TRISTA BECAUSE SHE’S ALMOST CERTAINLY NOT USING WIGGLYTUFF.

Attending this event? Join your fellow competitors in discussion on our forum.

VGC ’14 Georgia Regional

Difficulty Rating:

  / 5

(Some birds migrating north maybe? out of five)

Last Year’s Winner: Jerry Woods III (Sabaku)

The Story: The Southeast part of the country is one of those weird areas where there isn’t much depth in elite players, but where there are just enough elite players who go to events (sometimes they only say they’re going to go) that anyone looking for free CP is likely to face a rude awakening. Last year’s winner, Sabaku, kind of came out of nowhere and then sort of faded away again after a weak Nationals performance other than some consistently high Pokemon Showdown! ratings. It’ll be interesting to see if he can repeat history this year, though I suspect it’ll be some of the bigger names that come out on top this year and dethrone him.

Harrison Saylor (Crow) has the strange distinction of being the consensus best American player who has never played in Worlds after barely missing out on trips with deep Nationals runs both of the last two years. If he has his annual top 8 Nationals run this year it’s likely to be enough, but it’d sure be nice to see him get some bigger Regionals CP to help out. Here’s hoping he doesn’t have any surprise exams, or outbreaks of cholera, or alien abductions or whatever preventing him from attending this time. Every year in VGC there are a few graduating Senior division players who immediately become favorites in Masters in spite of most of the incumbent players seeming to underestimate them, and DeVon Ingram (dingram) is definitely one of those players. He opened a lot of eyes at Nationals last year with some really amazing play in a losing effort in the finals (thanks for switching to sequential finals so people actually saw this, TPCI), and as one of the players currently tied 10 points out of a trip to Nationals, this will be a very important event for him. It worries me a little bit that he doesn’t seem to have much variety in the teams he could play, but I think we learned from people like Randy Kwa, Ryosuke Kosuge, and Baz Anderson last year that playing similar teams repeatedly works if you can play them well enough. Another clinically underrated Senior graduate is Toler Webb (Dim). I don’t know how anyone could possibly overlook a former World Champion (it’s because of Kamz, isn’t it?), but Toler is the real deal. At least from my view as a commentator/competitor/tryhard, there’s always that elite group of players on top in this game that seem to be able to do at least decently in any metagame because they have an elite understanding of the game that can’t easily be taught, and Toler is one of a handful of younger guys I would put in that group… which is fortunate, because he seems to be Raying it on the practice a little this season.

One of the more interesting threats here is Cameron Kicak (Stormfront). Many people seem to overlook him in the Northeastern events in favor of bigger names (understandable), but he always seems to be one of the guys in top cut. With sort-of-but-not-actually-Atlanta being a much shallower event, it’ll be interesting to see if he can bust out his first super deep Regionals performance. He has a top 8 and top 16 finish already, so if he can take advantage of a weaker field and even finish in the semifinals, it would put him in a very strong CP position. Don’t be surprised if this happens. Michael Lanzano (JiveTime) is playing a little out of region here, and after an unfortunate 6-3 finish in Virginia due to losing an elimination game in the last round vs. Ray Rizzo, I’d expect JiveTime to be one of the favorites to win in Athens considering how dominant he’s been in some of the tougher Northeastern Regionals. An easy name to overlook here is Greg Johnson (bgt). I can’t claim to have much information on him as a player, but at 130 CP he’s actually had one of the best seasons of anyone who will be at the event, so logically you’d expect him to have one of the better sets of odds here. Another interesting mention is Joshua Edwards (General Josh), who I know only as the guy who denied me the opportunity to fangirl over a Ray vs. Toler and Wolfe vs. Enosh top 4 in Virginia by knocking Wolfe out in the round of 8.

There are a lot of other players who stand out as people I know are at least above average, but I’m going to cut the namedrops here to go a different direction instead of giving a bunch of half-hearted commendations. Last year, this was an event where a player broke out  made a name for himself by winning. I wouldn’t be surprised for that to happen again here with someone I wouldn’t mention even if I reached with some the obscure mentions, and at the very least, I’d be surprised if there aren’t several big unknowns in the top cut this time. This is an event with a lot of upset potential…

The Smart Money is on…:  I’m going with Dingram this time. Perhaps I think being kicked/muted on Showdown repeatedly is like training in one of those gravity chambers from DBZ. Maybe I associate the south with sun. I don’t know. I’m feelin’ it. There are several people here that it would be cool to see win, though.

Attending this event? Join your fellow competitors in discussion on our forum.

VGC ’14 Kansas Regional

Difficulty Rating:

/ 5

(A Pokemon that looks sort of like a Jayhawk but is mostly really bad out of five)

Last Year’s Winner: N/A

The Story

Ah yes, the inexplicable Kansas Regional…

But no time to complain about how silly I think that Regional is now! I think this one is actually really interesting from a prediction standpoint because it’s full of people who I mostly would mention right after the favorites as “other threats”, I guess. However, someone must become the first Kansas VGC champion…

Matthew Carter (mattj) is coming off a somewhat shocking Regional win in St. Louis. While I will admit the idea of mattj taking one of the sixteen NA Worlds invites seems a little strange to put it lightly, after commentating the finals there I do want to remind everyone that he actually played a pretty strong series there against a player I think most of do expect to make Worlds in 2010 National Champion Wesley Morioka (Wesley), fortunate game 1 critical hit or no. I would expect to see mattj in the cut again. Speaking of Wesley, I’m not sure if he’s coming as well, because until I guilt bearsfan into asking the Moriokas where they’re going on Facebook, and before I do they are like leprechauns that don’t really exist to me(and I forgot to go through that process this time so I have no idea where either of them are going), but if he is coming, he’ll be a big favorite too. I’ve really enjoyed the juxtaposition of some of the really strong younger players breaking out and the return of some of the old guard this year, and these guys have both kind of helped lead that.

As far as people I’m not sure if I associate with the younger or older crowd go, apparently Benji Irons (benjitheGREAT) is actually going to play in this one after taking the Winter off. He has 110 CP in spite of only having only gotten CP from one event(this is why we don’t get DQed), so a decent finish here would really help to put him in striking distance at Nationals. Benji is one of the more underappreciated players in the North American scene, as he’s had some really consistently solid finishes over the last year and a half or so, but always seems to fly a little under the radar regardless. I’m not sure if card game converts really count as being newer or older guard, but Matt Souerby (matt) gets next mention for being the player with most CP I actually know is going to attend at 190. He’ll need at least a top 8 finish if he hopes to add to his total, which will be important as he’s close enough to the top 16 line right now that he’ll likely need a minor increase if he wants the free trip to Nationals and the first round bye it brings.

Most of the remaining big threats are players who cut in St. Louis. Keegan Beljanski (Darkeness) lost a strange top 16 series after going undefeated* in Swiss. He’s one of those players who’s been on a pretty obvious upward trajectory over the course of the lat few events, so it’ll be interesting to see if he can keep improving his finishes like I expect he will here. Perhaps his most notable opponent* in St. Louis was Blake Hopper (Mrbopper), another player who had a great Swiss run and then fell a little shorter in top cut than I would have expected him to based on his bracket (not that top 8 isn’t a strong finish in its own right). I know a lot of people felt like their finishes were a little karmic after the ID, but I’m personally hoping they both get farther this time. Another player who had a great Swiss run into a short run in top cut was Jonathan Rankin (JRank), who ended up hitting me in the round of 16 with a team matchup that didn’t lead to a whole lot of influence on the game’s result by either of the players. Hopefully, he’ll draw matchups that are a little more even this time and have a better chance to show his skill. Another favorite based on St. Louis is Greyson Garren (GreySong), who is coming off a top 4 finish. Collin Heier (TheBattleRoom) also finally made it in to the cut in St. Louis. He’s always been one of those players where there was sort of a big disparity between the results some people expected him to get and what was actually happening. I haven’t seen him play much outside of running into him a couple times on Battle Spot before St. Louis, so I don’t have a very strong opinion about what I think will happen with him either way, but his is a story I think is interesting to watch.

Aaron Grubbs (LPFan) missed the cut in St. Louis in sort of bizarre fashion, which should definitely be surprising to people after some solid finishes in online events. I would expect him to end up in the cut this time, though it’s really difficult to predict how deep he’ll be able to go without having seen him in that position before. Ryan Booker (lolfailsnail) is one of those people who seem to have OmegaDonut syndrome where they could tank their own normally solid odds with strange team choices at any moment, but he finished in the top 4 of the Spring Regional he attended last year with a team that was pretty normal, so maybe it’s like a seasonal thing for him? I had one of my favorite live XY matches against Matt Siebert (El Scorcho) in a 6-2 game that decided which of us would cut in St. Louis, so I think there’s a good shot he’ll make it in this time after being just that close last time.  Other players to watch include Clayton Lusk (Zubat), who I am personally entrusting to defend America’s points, and Tom Vehlewald (TeeJay), who I expect to dominate the field with the power of fatherhood.

The Smart Money is on…: This is one event where it could really be on just about anyone. I’d like to pick Benji, but I’ve never seen him play XY, and I think I’m done cursing Mrbopper now, so I’ll go with Darkeness, who I think has already cursed himself, allowing me to avoid blame.

Attending this event? Join your fellow competitors in discussion on our forum.

VGC ’14 Washington Regional

Difficulty Rating: 

 / 5

(Contractually obligated former duck ducks-in-Seattle joke out of five)

Last Year’s Winner: N/A

The Story

The most important story is obviously that reigning US National Champion Gavin Michaels (kingofmars)’s hair should soon be no more. After losing a bet to fellow Seattle competitor Zach Droegkamp (Zach) about Zach winning Florida Regionals, it is time for the shaving, proving once and for all the Pokemon makes children into compulsive gamblers. Amusingly, it might be Gavin himself who has the best chance of stopping Zach this time, which will fortunately not save his hair as far as I know. Gavin himself is 2nd in overall CP while Zach is 7th, and both have a weaker finish they’ll be looking to replace here to increase the odds they’ll be able to cruise into Worlds. While both of them have a big lead in CP right now over most of the field, I wouldn’t expect either to get overconfident here — Zach proved last year he knows to keep it rolling at Regionals with a lead after getting like a billion Regionals CP or something during the 2013 season, and Gavin should have gotten all of his Regionals choking out of the way last year and have only solid performances left. Fellow Californian Mike Suleski (OmegaDonut) is also definitely in that group of players who are likely to stand directly in the way of anyone hoping to win the event. After underachieving a little in the first year of the CP system, he’s tied for second with 250 CP this year. It’ll be tough for him to actually improve on his CP, as he’d need at least a top 4 finish to gain any points, but he’ll be more than capable of doing so and playing spoiler for players who need points a little more than he does.

The other interesting story to me is that this is the only Regional close enough to Vancouver I would expect more casual fans to make the trip. After having Worlds there last year, I think we had high expectations the local community there would grow some, but the somewhat surprising removal of the local Regional’s VGC event after hosting Worlds has delayed the chance to see if there was any impact on our side of the game. It’ll be interesting to see if the Worlds effect can boost Seattle’s attendance appreciably beyond Oregon’s this year or Vancouver’s last year. If not, at least Vancouver will be sending its share of established players down. Aryana Welch (feathers) will draw some pictures of her Pokemon attacking other Pokemon and hope that counts for wins in Swiss or something, and we’ll see if Rushan Shekar (Firestorm) can return to his inexplicable CP gaining ways after coming down to Earth again a bit in the first XY event. The most interesting Vancouverite might be Jason Wynja (Arti), who managed a top 8 finish in Oregon. He’s one of those guys who’s always brought a lot of creativity to the game, which can both be really helpful and really difficult to overcome. It’ll be interesting to see what he brings to his return to an event where he once lost to Focus Sash Golem.

The bigger name Vancouverites, of course, join Zach and Fidget as the biggest threats. Randy Kwa (R Inanimate) has very little to show for this season so far, but I’d say he’s pretty obviously at least one of the best ten or so players in the region, so it’s a little painful to see him with so little CP. He’s usually pretty clutch, so we’ll see if he can get things rolling in the right direction in his last real chance before Nationals. He has a rival of sorts in Tony Cheung (Chinese Dood), who bested him last time with a top four finish in Oregon. It’s hard to write too much about either of them that hasn’t been written already: Randy is one of the game’s more popular players because of his well-defined perspective on the game and how open he’s been with the community about his teams and strategies, while Tony has always kind of kept to himself and seems to consistently surprise everyone by how well he does at events… which seems to happen to a surprisingly large amount of consistent-but-reclusive players, now that I think about it. April Hooge (Phenac), the last e-famous Vancouverite, finished in the top 8 of her first Masters event, but fell a little short in Oregon, so it’ll be interesting to see if she can have her first big XY finish here.

To go along with the Psyduck difficulty rating, Huy Ha (Huy), Duy Ha (Duy), and Len Deuel (Alaka) will be joining their friends from Vancouver in making a pilgrimage to their homeland. While the last time they battled their they were in the glory days of their Pokemon youth, they are now older and feebler and possibly only have three Pokemon left. I think one of Huy’s three Pokemon is Carbink, so for him it’s more like two. All three of them have had some great finishes in the past, but they’ve mostly fallen off in XY, with Duy, the other member of that cursed 13th place CP tie, seeming to have been relegated mostly full time to commentating. In spite of that, Duy still has 130 CP, so if he’s spent some time with XY since his last Regionals appearance, he’s still in striking distance. Huy is actually due to breakout this year, since as this is an even numbered year, he should end up in Worlds eventually. I’m not sure what to say for Len, though — he is one of many players Pokemon and college hasn’t mixed very well for. He does have one top four finish this year, though, and with two Regionals left this cycle he could still end up with a solid Regionals season. Other than Huy, who bubbled at 7-2 in California, all of these guys seem to need to spend a little more time with XY. Admittedly, Len was 8-1 in Swiss, but how do you get smashed in top cut by Mr. Mime?

I wish I had more to say about some of the other players, but this is sort of the one region where I feel like distance has caused my information to be a little cloudy. Kacey Traver (KTween) finished in the top 4 at Vancouver and will possibly be motivated by my out of five joke. Sam Haarsma (DrFidget) has returned to the shadows, but I do feel like it’s worth remembering he was 2nd in CP at this time last season. I’m not sure if a bunch of relatively local players like Alex Stempe (Stempe), Alex Ogloza (Evan Falco), and Stephen Morioka (Stephen) are coming (actually, now that I think of it I don’t actually know Tony is coming, either…), but if they do come, they’ll be big threats. The latter two both have three events toward the BFL already, so if they do show up, it’s only going to be worth something if they do well. I initially forgot Thomas Mifflin (PBB) was going to this event as well, but he’s both going and only 20 points out of a Worlds trip right now. I’m not sure if he’s been playing XY, but I don’t think he really played BW2 either, so I don’t expect things like “playing the game” to stand in his way.

The Smart Money is on…: JUSTICE! Which in this case, to me, means R Inanimate. (But not R Justice, because that’s a different person). Please make Worlds, Randy. Canada needs you

Attending this event? Join your fellow competitors in discussion on our forum.

About the Author

Scott started playing VGC in 2011. He finished 17th at US Nationals, then lost in the final round of 2011 Worlds LCQ. He finished 10th in the 2012 World Championships and qualified for Worlds again in 2013 after going into US Nationals second in CP. Instead of playing, he commentated at US Nationals and the World Championships in 2013 and 2014. Follow him on Twitter @NBNostrom!

Related Posts

New Mechanics Introduced in VGC 2016 →

VGC ’16 Pokémon Speed Tiers →

Hyper Offense Analysis – BadIntent’s Evil Thoughts →

Greener Grassy Terrain: A More Balanced Future For VGC? →